Forexlive European FX News 8 Oct: Hard Brexit exit looms (and trouble with US/China too)
FX news for European session
- Brexit: Irish foreign minister says remains open to a fair Brexit deal
- US White House: looking to limit Chinese stocks within Gov't pension fund
- Fed's Rosengren: Data out a little weaker than he had anticipated
- European indices down as Dax falls under 12000
- EU Tusk: Ask's UK 'Where are you going?'
- EU Commission: EU position not changed, we want a deal
- Germany to not release their account of Merkel Johnson telephone call
- China tones down expectations ahead of US/China trade talks
- GBP dragged down as No 10 sees Brexit deal as 'impossible'.
- Brexit/US China: Gold and silver longs look promising
- EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom: Not optimistic on avoiding US tariffs
- Brexit: British Gov't does not believe that the EU are engaging seriously
- GBP down on customs union news
- Brexit: Deputy DUP leader Dodd on the wires
- China's Ministry of Commerce: stay tuned for blacklist retaliaton
- US-China trade talks: How to make friends and influence people
- Where are we with Brexit this am?
- Europe opens in the green following Asia's lead
- US-China trade talks: Where are we at this am?
- German August Industrial Production 0.3% vs -0.1% m/m expected
- What's the probability of a Fed cut now?
- Dax: -1.01%
- UK FTSE: -0.24%
- Euro Stoxx: -1.04%
- France 40 (CAC): -1.04%
- Gold: +0.75%
- Silver: +0.73%
This will be my last session wrap of my latest stint covering the European session. Justin will return to his post after a well deserved break.
The initial handover from Asian equites was risk positive with Asian markets optimistic on US China trade talks coming up on October 10 and 11. The initial risk sentiment looked positive for risk, however that changed early on in the session with some negative headlines for both Brexit and US/China talks.
First of all we had news from China's Commerce Ministry that they would retaliate after the US named 28 Chinese companies to blacklist. They said, 'stay tuned' for retaliation. Then we had Brexit related news that PM Johnson and Chancellor Merkel had a disastrous conversation where it was revealed that there was no chance of a Brexit deal. Then there was more negative news from China that talks were cut back on day and there was a name change of the vice premier indicating slightly less authority that he was carrying from Xi. The tone was negative and toward the end of the session there was more talk from the US limiting investments in Chinese companies from US Gov't pension funds. This is not the sound of two sides about to make a deal. This is more aggressive than constructive.
I expected the AUDJPY to move down during the session and it pinged the 72.00 handle at the time of writing. Gold and silver seemed obvious pairs to find buyers in such an environment and I alerted readers to that here, before they started climbing. With Brexit and US/China risk they were obviously going to attract buyers. Longer term weekly GBPJPYs shorts look good, but the risk of a last minute deal is keeping me out of them. Often deals get done last minute and I could see a Brexit deal done this way., regardless of the seeming impossibility at present.
And so my friends, thanks once again for making my stay here a pleasure. Plenty of good comments and ideas through the last couple of weeks take care and feel free to pop in and say hello on my morning post tomorrow at 0700BST (0600GMT)