Forex news and economic data headlines 8 September 2015

What happened in Asia - ForexLive Asia FX news wrap: Ugly China export and import data again ignite EUR & yen

  • August 2015 Japan economy watchers survey 49.3 vs 52.0 exp
  • August 2015 Swiss unemployment rate 3.2% vs 3.1% exp NSA
  • July 2015 German trade balance 25.0bn vs 22.3bn exp
  • August 2015 Bank of France business sentiment index 98 vs 99 exp
  • July 2015 French trade balance -3.3bn vs -3.1bn exp
  • Q2 2015 Spanish HPI +4.2% vs -06% prior q/q
  • Q2 2015 Eurozone GDP revision 0.4% vs 0.3% exp q/q
  • August 2015 US NFIB small business optimism index 95.9 vs 96 exp
  • GBPUSD on a tear as market jumps on risk and M&A chatter
  • Japan's Suga: It's important to pay attention to market movements
  • France's Sapin says French GDP data is deceiving
  • German strength to drive the economy forward says Schaeuble
  • Forex option expiries for the 10am (14.00 GMT) New York cut 8 September 2015

Trading the euro is becoming very difficult to fathom intraday. One minute it's a funding currency and risk trade, then it's trading the data, then it's moved by the dollar. Virtually no two trading sessions are the same for reasons why it's moving. That makes it very tough to give yourself a reason to put on a trade knowing that reason could be redundant 5 minutes after pressing the button. That's life and shit happens, like today

Things started off with a definite risk off tone, Asia was off, yen crosses were off, swiss crosses were off, it wasn't looking good. The Euro was sitting above 1.1200 when I came in, the Nikkei was wiping out the year's gains, and China wasn't doing much better. And then it changed. Suddenly Asia stocks started turning. The Nikkei ignored the moves to finish near the lows but the rest weren't having it. Stocks started ripping and risk started ripping. Even EURUSD started ripping as it was dragged up by EURJPY. It hit 1.1230 before the cross activity ran out of steam and the dollar side took over. We lost a quick 35 pips and then another 20 to put us at 1.1170 where we based for a while. Then we made the break through 1.1170 to finish where we are now at 1.1158, after a low of 1.1153. Again it's the pull of the crosses that's dragged the pair around as EURGBP cops it from more pound strength. That pair sits on support around 0.7250

USDJPY might have been forgiven for keeping the bearish tone after the Nikkei's performance but that wasn't to be. On the risk train it jumped and from just under 119.00 we made light work in moving to test 120.00. That level didn't last long either and up we went to 120.23. It was a very sharp move driven by a sudden change in sentiment. The move in Asia stocks looks very unnatural and smacks of intervention

GBPUSD is still running naked through the streets like a madman and it got some help from the crosses. GBPJPY ripped from 181.83 to 184.96 and that lit another touchpaper under cable. 1.5404 traded before we ran out of steam and fell back towards 1.5370 odd. At the moment there's no signs that cable will follow the euro back down, though again, the EURGBP level may be influencing events

Maybe there's been too much doom and gloom and we're now seeing some fight back. Commodity currencies seem to think so, as does oil. Even gold is up. AUDUSD has finished barrier busting for now and is looking up rather than down. It's found a very tough resistance barrier ahead of 0.7000 and is deciding what it wants to do about it

We're still in a period where some moves don't make sense and come out of nothing. Greg had a great handle on it late last week. There's a lot going on and probably too much for the market to concentrate on. That means we have to act accordingly and make sure that we don't get caught out

Try to make sure you have as good a handle on things as you can but remember that even a simple mix up can cost you dearly, so make sure you've covered your ass