Forex news from the European morning session 6 Oct

News:

  • HSBC does not see BOJ easing anytime soon
  • Huatai Securities say Chinese GDP likely to fall to 4-6% in next couple of years
  • OPEC says non-OPEC oil supply growth may be zero or negative in 2016
  • BOA/Merrill push back their BOE rate hike forecast to May 2016
  • Bank analyst responses to the RBA decision today
  • The Aussie $ marches on after RBA hold rates

  • VW's Mueller says fallout from crisis will require massive cut backs

  • Poland keeps interest rates on hold
  • Greece delays sale of Piraeus port
  • Watch Ryan appearing on Tip TV
  • Option expiries 10am NY cut today 6 Oct

Data:

  • Germany factory orders August mm -1.8% vs +0.5% exp
  • Switzerland CPI Sept mm +0.1% vs +0.0% exp
  • Germany construction PMI Sept 52.4 vs 50.3 prev
  • UK Halifax house price index Sept mm -0.9% vs +0.1% exp
  • Eurozone Markit retail PMI Sept 51.9 vs 51.4 prev
  • UK new vehicle registrations Sept yy +8.6% vs +9.6% prev
  • Nikkei 225 closes up +1.0% at 18,186.10

It's been a tale of two haves again but this time it's a case of busy vs flat rather than any real change of sentiment in the US$

The Euro found some favour early on as European equity markets turned lower after a flat start and we've seen EURUSD post 1.1217 from 11180 only then to trade between 1.1200-1.1215 for the duration

Similarly EURGBP had a lift to 0.7405 from 0.7375 only to retreat and camp between 0.7385-0.7395 while EURJPY found early support below 134.50 to post 134.85 where it camped before testing 135.00 as I type

USDJPY failed above 120.50 as the Nikkei pared gains into the close but is still well supported in the dips and has rallied to print 120.37 helped by the EURJPY demand but its been stuck around 120.30 mostly since that spike

The Aussie $ enjoyed another spike after the RBA left rates on hold but ran out of steam as I pre-empted in my post and we saw AUDUSD fall from 0.7135 to test support around 0.7100 with AUDNZD capping at 1.0976 and giving NZDUSD a little support above 0.6480 after failing above 0.6500. EURAUD demand has also added to the AUD retreat (something we sadly didn't see at Twickenham on Saturday night!)

USDCAD has found support into 1.3080 as oil price gains ran out of steam while USDCHF has also had the morning off between 0.9735-0.9765 with EURCHF anchored above 1.0900 again

Enough going on initially to create opportunities for the intra-day traders but we must hope that our North American friends can inject some life into it again