Forex trading headlines from the European morning session 15 May
- ECB’s Constancio does not rule out further monetary easing
- ECB to cut deposit rate to -0.25% – Spanish press
- ECB Q2 SPF sees Eurozone 2014 HICP at +0.9% vs +1.1% prev
- ECB’s Constancio says lower SPF inflation forecasts not unexpected
- ECB’s Mersch says there is no unconditional precommitment to act
- CHF weakening on talk of SNB raising EURCHF floor
- Germany’s Schaeuble sees no danger of deflation
- Germany’s Schaeuble says there is no way around reducing excess liquidity
- BOE’s Broadbent says interest rates likely to be gentler than in the past
- BOJ’s Kuroda says they watching developments in stock market
- Japan PM Abe says he wants corporate tax to be included in govt economic policy outline
- Japan’s Aso says Japan can’t cut corporation tax in the next few years
- GDP data gave mixed picture says EU
- Russia asks EU to get Ukraine to pay the gas bill
- Ex GPIF advisory panel head Ito says deflation exit will cause losses for GPIF
- How the Euro was saved – Part 2
- April eurozone HICP final 0.7% vs 0.7% exp y/y
- Eurozone Q1 GDP flash q/q +0.2% vs +0.4% exp
- German Q1 GDP flash q/q +0.8% vs +0.7% exp
- French Q1 GDP flash q/q 0.0% vs +0.2% exp
- Italian Q1 GDP flash q/q -0.1% vs +0.2% exp
- Swiss PPI April m/m -0.3% vs 0.0% prev
- Q1 2014 Greece GDP -1.1% vs -1.3% exp
- Japanese consumer confidence index April 37.0 vs 37.5 prev
- Nikkei closes down 0.75% at 14,298.21
- Shanghai Composite Index closes down 1.1% at 2025.17
It’s been a lively session from the start with plenty kicking off and more rhetoric than we’ve had in a long while.
Too much flicking around in the price actions to outline everyone but we’ve seen the euro remain on the back foot with more talk of easing and weaker GDP data but with CPI springing no surprises. EURUSD had a quick run down from 1.3705 to 13685 support on talk of a 0.25% rate cut combined with ECB members not ruling out further easing. We then had another slap lower to 1.3665 then 1.3651 before finding some stability.
EURGBP has fallen back to 0.8146 from 0.8162 but EURCHF has made steady gains to 1.2230 on renewed speculation that the SNB might need to lift’s defence level to 1.25-30 which has in turn given USDCHF an additional boost to 0.8959 from 0.8895 before running into offers
The pound has generally been in consolidative mode with demand from the EURGBP selling but that hasn’t stopped it having its own wobble with GBPUSD testing the 1.6725-35 support having started the session at 1.6770.
Yen pairs had a topsy-turvey morning with USDJPY first heading up from 101.90 to test resistance around 102.15 but failure to breach sent pairs falling again along with USDJPY which was soon back at 101.85 in a hurry.
AUDUSD, NZD and USDCAD have all been caught up in the cross plays but generally in tight ranges albeit on the back foot.
US data might throw more into the mix, and these markets remain extremely fragile.