• German Ifo institute business climate index 106.7, better than median forecast of 105.7
  • Ireland’s NTMA says S&P rating action is based on “extreme estimate” of bank recapitalisation costs. Doesn’t ascribe any value to “bad banks” current assets. Believes S&P’s approach is flawed
  • Japan PM Kan: No comment on intervention. PLans to consider economic steps quickly
  • Australia PM Gillard: Had productive talks with key independent MPs over future government. Responded positively to all points raised by key independents
  • Swedish consumer confidence 25.2 in August, up from 23.3 in July and better than median forecast of 23.0
  • Greek FinMin: Recession is shallower than what could have been expected, economy seen contracting less than 4%

Busy morning. EUR/USD sits at 1.2630, marginally lower on the day. Inbetween though we’ve been all the way up to 1.2725 and back down again. BIS capped early rally attempts, selling in the 1.2645/50 area.

Euro bulls were not to be denied though. The pairing was already on the rise (Eastern European buying notable), when the release of better than expected German Ifo data sent us spiking to session high 1.2725. Sell orders had been well noted at 1.2720.30 and they proved durable barrier to upside.

The BIS came in selling again above 1.2700, along with an Asian sovereign and Russia. A powerful triumverate and we were quickly on the slide. Rumours circulated that the Portuguese bond auction had gone badly weighing on the pairing. Infact it went ok. But this hasn’t stopped EUR/USD continiuing lower as Greece bonds get dumped. Worries regarding PIIGS are never far from the surface.

Talk buy orders clustered down at 1.2580/90, stops below. Buy stops said to be gathering just north of the 1.2720/30 sell orders.

USD/JPY up marginally on day, presently at 84.50 from early 84.30. Have been ongoing reports of a Danish bank on the bid down around 84.35. They were notable buyers yesterday as well. Some scuttlebutt they’re working on behalf of a Hungarian investor. Any names come to mind? Who knows whether that’s true, but the talk is out there. Loads of rhetoric from various Japanese officials, which really doesn’t amount to a hill of beans.

Cable little changed on day, infact at 1.5420 it’s unchanged from when I arrived. Dips below 1.5400 have seen decent buy interest emerge quickly. Russia and India have been two notable central bank buyers today. Talk of stops through 1.5370. Sell orders clustered up at 1.5480/00. Probably buy stops just above there.