Forex news for NY trading on March 1, 2019.
- US stocks close with solid gains on the day
- EU Barnier: We are ready to give UK further guarantees that backstop is temporary
- Crude oil futures are settling at $55.80 for the day/week.
- The Bank of Canada was wrong: It's a poor picture for the Canadian dollar
- Fed's Bostic: Data have come in pretty weak to start 2019
- Baker Hughes oil rigs 843 vs 853 last week
- US Commerce Secretary Ross: US could use tariffs, quotas to enforce China deal
- Video: Earnings season a bad omen for loonie
- European shares end the week with Friday gains
- Atlanta Fed sees a poor start to 2019 in its first Q1 GDP forecast
- Kudlow: Tremendous progress has been made in Chinese trade talks
- University of Michigan (F) consumer sentiment for February 93.8 vs 95.9 est.
- US February ISM manufacturing 54.2 vs 55.8 expected
- White House's Hassett: Auto loan data is 'a little concerning'
- Canada Markit manufacturing PMI 52.6 vs 53.0 prior
- Did the Canadian GDP data leak?
- US core PCE YoY for January 1.9%
- Canada Q4 GDP +0.4% q/q annualized vs +1.0% expected
- The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
In other market, end of week levels are showing:
- Sppt gold tumbled $20.29 or -1.54% to $1293.00. The high reached $1315.30. The low extended to $1290.23. The higher dollar today (the USD was the strongest) was the catalyst for the steady selling today. Technically, support at the $1298-$1303 tried to hold but ultimately gave way in late NY trading. What was support is not resistance.
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down -$1.50 or -2.60% at $55.74. The price is closing below its 100 day MA after trading above and below that MA this week only to lose upside momentum today. The MA comes in at $56.05 and will be a barometer for the bulls and bears next week
- Bitcoin on Coinbase is trading up $27.44 today at $3829.98. The price is closing above its 100 day MA at $3692.77. The price has closed above its 100 day MA for 11 days now but the high over that period (from last Sunday) reached $4188. The price during this week traded in a narrow range of $3655 to $3910.
Stocks in the US, Canada all closed higher today with the exception of the Spainish Ibex. The Nasdaq led the charge with a 0.83% gain.
For the week, the Nasdaq closed higher for the 10th straight week. The Dows string of higher week closes was snapped at 9 with the -0.02% decline this week. Oh so close. The UK FTSE was the only other major index to end lower on the week. The Shanghai composite ran away with the strongest gainer for the week after rising 6.77% you.
In the US debt market, yields rose which helped the USD rise today. Yields rose from 4.0 bps to 4.7 bps across the yield curve. The yields got a boost yesterday after the better than expected GDP data. That was the good news for bond bears.
The not so good news is that the estimates for the 1Q GDP started to come out today, and they did not impress. The Atlanta Fed debut estimate came in at 0.3%. The NY Fed's Nowcast came in at 0.9%. Fed's Bostic alluded to the slow start by saying "Data has come in pretty weak to start 2019"
In addition to the lacklustre GDP estimates today, the other data was not up to expectations today.
- ISM Manufacturing came in weaker
- Michigan consumer confidence came in weaker
Nevertheless, it did not stop yields from moving higher. Below are the ranges and changes for the yeild curve.
The big moving news today came out of Canada. The GDP for the 4Q not only was released 26 minutes early but to compound the error, it was a big miss (0.4% actual vs 1.0% estimate). The price started to go higher at around 8:10 AM and was offiically released a minute or two before 8:30 AM ET scheduled release time. Whoops.
The price initially stalled the rally within 10 pips of its 100 day MA at 1.3251 (from a low of 1.3143 at the start of the leaked rally), and after a modest correction, the pair pushed even higher up to a high near the close at 1.3305. The CAD was the runawy weakest currency of the day. The USD - despite the weaker data - was the strongest.
What about for the week?
The GBP, which declined yesterday and today, was nevertheless the strongest of the majors. The CAD was not only the weakest today, but also the weakest for the week.
For the GBP, the currency squeezed higher this week on concesssion by PM May that their would not be a "No-Deal" Brexit (although if there is a request for an extension it still needs the unanimous approval of the EU council). A good ole fashion technical squeeze also helped.
For the GPPUSD, the pair stalled at the 100 hour MA on Monday, and on Wednesday moved above and closed above its 100 week MA at 1.31967. The high reached 1.3349 before giving up some of the gains at the end of the week. The pair is closing, riight at the 100 week MA which keeps the bias tilt for next week dependent on the 100 week MA in early trading on Monday in Asia. Be aware.
How did the USD perform this week?
It ended higher vs the CAD, AUD anad NZD but fell vs the EUR, GBP and CHF (although changes vs the CHF and EUR were relatively modest.
Thansk for your support this week. Wishing everyone a happy and healthy weekend.
