Forex news for North American trading on February 11, 2021
- US' Fauci says Sth.African coronavirus variant is a little more problematic
- NASDAQ ends at a new all-time record close
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $58.24
- US CBO projects 2021 US budget deficit of $2.258 trillion
- US sells 30-year bonds at 1.933% vs 1.923% WI
- Italy 5-Star movement votes to support Draghi government
- Biden team working aggressively on-chip shortage
- European equity close: German market leads the way
- EU to make new appear to US on WTO reform to confront China
- This market is insane but FOMO is stronger than fear
- ECB's Makhlouf: In the near term, the outlook has deteriorated
- US initial jobless claims 793K vs. 760K estimate
- Mastercard to start supporting crypto payments on its network
- The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
In other market today:
- spot gold is trading down $-16.61 or -0.90% at $1826.26
- spot silver is down $0.03 or -0.11% at $26.99
- WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.69 or -1.18% of $57.99
- Bitcoin moved to a new record today at $48,690. The low price today reached $44,011. The current price up $2047 or 4.56% at $47,100
It was an up and down day in the forex market today. The only economic news was weekly initial jobless claims which came in weaker at 793K vs 760K estimate. Moreover, the previous week was revised higher to 812K from 779K. Finally, The pandemic unemployment assistance moved sharply higher to 8,715,306 vs 7,218,801 last week (was 7,217,713). That is a gain of 1,496,505. Not great employment numbers but Fed officials have been speaking to that topic of late, and all but promised that they were most concerned about getting employment to full employment and that they would tolerate a move up in inflation.
The markets nevertheless are bit torn between higher or lower in the forex and also the stock market over the last few days. The NASDAQ index did run higher into the close but traded up and down and up and down. The S&P index was just positive I will 0.17%. The Dow industrial average was just negative at -0.02%. European shares were mixed with the German DAX leading the way at 0.77%. Spain's Ibex fell by -0.34%.
In the forex market, a snapshot of the strongest weakest currencies near the end of the day is showing the AUD remaining as the strongest (it was the strongest at the start of the day). The GBP is the weakest. The JPY was the weakest at the start of the NY session. The USD was mixed but weaker at the start of the day with most of the declines vs the AUD and NZD and that is how the day is ending.
The inactivity is also reflected in the ranges for the day. The biggest ranges were in the AUDUSD (59 pips) and GBPUSD (58 pips), but the EURUSD only had a low to high range of 35 pips. The USDJPY at 26 pips and USDCHF at 18 pips, basically took the day off. Most of the crosses ranges were also below their 22 day averages. With little in the when of economic news, or expectations for change in policy and a stock market which is also up and down over the last few days, the forex market is taking clues from it.
Some levels to watch in the new trading day:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD close higher for the 5th consecutive day but for the 2nd consecutive day the gains were modest. The high for the day fell short of a swing area between 1.21507 and 1.21552. The inability to extend above that target after making new highs for the week, has me thinking a weaker Friday. On the downside, the rising 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.20938.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD chopped more to the downside today and with the corrective move lower has allowed for the 100 hour moving average to start to catch up with the price. It currently comes in at 1.37892. Move below that level in the new trading day and we could see further probing to the downside. Stay above is more bullish. The price is currently trading at 1.3810
- USDJPY: The USDJPY remained underneath the broken 38.2% retracement at 104.83, but above the 50% retracement 104.542. Also on the downside in the new trading day is the 100 day moving average at 104.376. That level was tested on Wednesday and found willing buyers against the level. At some point we won't get a break either to the upside or downside. However for the last 2 1/2 days, the pair has been wandering in a confined trading range between the aforementioned technical levels