Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD supported by risk aversion flow

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: News

Forex new for North American trading on January 11, 2021

The USD moved higher in trading today as levels of risk aversion from Covid, fears from potential impeachment proceedings hurting stimulus hopes/stocks.  Higher rates and traders exiting  bitcoin (and into the dollar) after the run to $42,000 last week also helped to give a boost to the greenback..

A snapshot of some of the markets near the end of day is showing:

  • Spot gold, down $4.04 -0.22% at $1844.95. The price of Gold rebounded from a low of $1817.49 as the dollar came off higher levels earlier in the North American session
  • Spot silver help $0.46 or -1.84% to $24.95. The high reached $25.51. The low extended to $24.34
  • WTI crude oil futures fell $0.09 or -0.17% to $52.15. It's high reached $52.70. The low reached $51.50.
The price of price of Bitcoin on Coinbase traded as high as $39,071.13 and as low as $30,100. At the lows, the digital currency was nearly $12,000 less than the high price from Friday's trade near $42,000. That's a decline of around 28.5% from the high price. The low price got within $300 of the 50% midpoint of the move up from the December 11 low price of $17,636.11 and is bouncing into the close. The price is currently trading at $34,255. That's still down $3700 on the day, but well off the lows.  

Below is a snapshot of the strongest to weakest currencies today.  As mentioned, the USD was the strongest of the majors followed by the JPY. The NZD was the weakest.  

Forex new for North American trading on January 11, 2021
Although the dollar is higher and the strongest of the majors, a look at the low to high ranges (in pips from the close on Friday) show that the greenback is well off the highs for the session. The commodity currencies, led by the NZD and AUD, were the biggest decliners vs the USD.  

The ranges and changes for the major currency pairs
Some technical thoughts on some of the major pairs:
  • EURUSD. The EURUSD fell to a low of 1.21315. That got within 3 pips of the December 21 swing low at 1.21285. The price bounced off that support level but stalled the rally near a swing area between 1.21719 and 1.2177.  The price is trading between the support and resistance levels at 1.2150 into the close
  • GBPUSD.  The GBPUSD fell but found support buyers against the 50% retracement of the move up from the December 21 low at 1.34448 (low reached 1.3449).  The price bounced to test a swing area between 1.35212 to 1.35347 and found  sellers. The price is trading at 1.3512 into the close. Get above 1.35347 would increase the bullish bias. Stay below and get back below 1.3500 and we could see more downside probing in the new trading day
  • USDJPY. The USDJPY closed higher on the day, but retraced around 1/2 of the gains in the NY session. The low price in the NY session reached 104.06 - just above the 104.00 natural support level. Stay above that level in the new day, keeps the buyers in firm control.  The 100 day MA for the USDJPY is up at 104.717.  The price has not closed above the 100 day MA since June 8th.   Be aware.
  • AUDUSD. The AUDUSD - like the USDJPY - retraced about 50% of the move lower, but run into resistance against the 200 hour MA at 0.77207 level The price is trading at 0.7695 into the close.  If the price is to go higher, getting above the 200 hour MA is a minimum requirement. If not, the sellers continue to hold onto control. 

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