Forexlive Americas FX news wrap. Retail sales rebound. Stocks soar.
Forex news for March 11, 2019
- What a day. Big gains for US stocks
- BBC Adler: Don't expect any last minute negotiations
- BBC Nicholas Watt: Cabinet ministers tell him the negotiations are not looking good
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $56.79
- GBPUSD goes for the gusto and hits the 200 hour MA target, and backs off
- More Brexit from Laura Kuenssberg: There where will be
- US auctions $38B of 3 year notes at 2.443%
- BBC pol. correspondent: Senior ERG member believe No. 10 has some kind of deal
- US treasury to auction $38B of 3 year notes at the top of the hour
- Goldman cuts their 1Q GDP tracking to 0.5% from 0.9% last
- European shares close higher.
- PM May spokesperson: Brexit talks are ongoing on a technical level
- Atlanta Fed GDP now 0.2% versus 0.5% last
- Trump administration releases of the $4.7T budget proposal for fiscal 2020
- NY Fed 1 and 3 year inflation expectations dips to 2.8% from 3.0% previously
- On again. Off again. On again. PM May is reportedly heading to Strasbourg
- Gold keeps a lid on the pair at the 200 hour MA. Trades at new session lows.
- Barclays cuts 1Q GDP growth to 2% from 2.5% previously.
- US business inventories +0.6 versus 0.6% estimate
- Germany's Merkel: EU Junker made important offer to UK on Brexit
- Irish Foreign Minister Coveney: Obstacles to getting a deal
- BOE Haskel: The prospect of low business investment in UK seems possible
- US retail sales advance for January 0.2% vs 0.0% estimate
- The EUR is the strongest while the CHF is the weakest as the NA week begins
- UK PM spokesman: Brexit meaningful vote will take place tomorrow
In other markets, the snapshot of markets are showing:
- Spot gold fell -$5.13 or -0.40% at 1293.50. Technicals kept a lid on the pair against the 200 hour MA
- WTI crude oil is trading up $0.77 or 1.37% at $56.85
I guess part of the rise can be attributed to better retail sale - sort of. The numbers for the breakdowns in January were indeed better than expecations but revisions to the December numbers were down (see report here). That month was already a huge surprise especially since private sales numbers for the key holiday season were pretty good. One explanation? The government cannot properly account for the online sales during the holiday season. So ignore it. It is a anomoly.
The other catalyst for the strong tone might have been hopes for a Brexit deal. The clock is ticking with key votes by the lawmakers tomorrow. Before then, PM May headed to Strasbourg for more talks. Will it result in anything? Who knows, but it did help stocks and also all the GBP pairs.
Looking at the rankings of the % gainers and % losers, the GBP was the run away strongest of the major currencyies. The CHF and JPY were the weakest as flight to safety bids were taken out of those currencies. Where did the USD settlle? Lower, with most of the declines coming vs the GBP and the rest vs the risky currencies (like the AUD, NZD and CAD).
The GBPUSD had an oversized 221 pip trading range that took the price from a NY session low at 1.2981 to that was just below the 200 day MA of 1.29876 to a high of 1.3168. That high stalled right at the 200 hour MA. So there was some profit taking. The pair is going out at 1.3145 area which is between the 100 hour MA at 1.3099 (call it 1.3100) and the 200 our MA at 1.31667.
The EURUSD had a nothing of a day. The price is ending a little higher after trading above and below the Friday closing level at 1.1230 (trading at 1.1244 currently). In the NY session, the price traded down to the underside of a broken trend line and stalled (at 1.12167). The consolidation has allowed for the 100 hour MA to come closer to the price. That MA comes in at 1.1259 and moving lower. The sellers remain more in control below that MA line.
The USDJPY is higher on the day (flight out of risk) but the price action was also up and down. The pair is ending the NY session near the 38.2% of the move down from last weeks high at 111.247. The level to eye in the new day is the 100 and 200 day MAs at 111.38. Move above those key MAs and the bias tilts more to the upside. Stay below and the seller have more of the edge.
The AUDUSD in the last few hours of the day moved above its 200 hour MA at 0.7069. We are closing near that level and the MA line will be the barometer for the bulls and bears in the new day.
Wshing all a good evening, morning, day.