Forex news for North American trading on January 13, 2021
- Fed's Clarida: Won't raise rates until inflation achieves 2% goal
- Bitcoin surges to new session highs. Up 4.1%.
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $52.91
- Beige Book: Most districts said activity increased modestly
- 'Sell the fact' on Biden's stimulus plan?
- Brainard: Fed stands ready to increase pace of bond buys if necessary
- Another strong bond auction weighs on the US dollar
- Fed's Brainard: New framework avoids need to tighten preemptively
- Sen Maj Leader McConnell: Won't let Senate meet for impeachment pre January 19
- Italy ministers quit coalition. Puts Premier Conte at risk
- European major indices rebound from lows and close higher on the day
- UK covid cases continues to trend in better direction but deaths hit record
- EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -3248K vs -3000K expected
- Fed's Bullard: Don't want to put specific dates on tapering QE
- Switzerland extends covid-19 restrictions to end of February
- US December CPI +1.4% y/y vs +1.3% expected
- The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest at the start of the NA session
Near the end of the NY session, the US House of Representatives voted to impeach Pres. Trump for the 2nd time. The vote came in at 232 vs 187 with included 10 GOP supporting the impeachment resolution.
Senator McConnell's office has said that they would not start impeachment proceedings until after January 19th (the inauguration is on January 20). So barring any last minute change in invoking the 25th Amendment, it looks like fingers are crossed for a smooth transition into the Biden administration.
The USD was better bid today after the decline yesterday (the USD was the weakest of the majors yesterday). The USD rose today against all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD (the loonie was the weakest). The NZD and the AUD were the weakest. Tomorrow, the focus will shift to the proposed Biden stimulus plan. Adam writes of that event here.
Looking at some of the major currency pairs today:
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved up and tested the high from last week at 1.37026. The high price reached 1.3700. The inability to move above that level sent the pair down with the price reaching a low of 1.36108. The pair is consolidating near 1.3633. The 200 hour MA is down at 1.35964 and will be eyed for possible support on more selling in the new trading day. On the topside, the 1.36703 is a swing high from January 6th and will be eyed as a potential resistance level.
- EURUSD: The EURUSD - like the GBPUSD - moved up to a high in the late Asian session at 1.22223. That rise did extend above the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% of the move down from last week's high at 1.22144. However, the gains could not be sustained, and the price fell to a low of 1.21389. The low from yesterday reached 1.21364. So buyers leaned against that level on the move lower today. IN the new day, the 100 hour MA is up at 1.2192 (and moving lower). The lows at 1.21364 and from Monday at 1.21315 are downside targets
- USDJPY: The USDJPY move down toward the 50% retracement level at 103.489 (the low reached 103.519) before moving higher into the London/early North American session. The high reached the 100 hour MA at 103.98 currently. The high for the day reached 103.991 before waffling between 103.739 and 103.99 for the rest of the day.
- AUDUSD The AUD was one of the weakest currencies today. Its price in the NY session traded above and below its converged 100/200 hour MAs at 0.7737. The price is ending the day just below those MAs at 0.7737. That MAs will be the barometer for the buyers and sellers in the new trading day. Move above is more bullish. Stay below is more bearish. The price is just below the level at 0.7732.
US stocks today closed higher with:
- S&P rising by 0.23%
- Nasdaq rose by 0.43%
- Dow closed near unchanged
In the US debt market yields were lower after another stellar auction at higher yield levels.
- 2 year 0.143%, -0.2 bps
- 5 year, 0.4691%, -3 bps
- 10 year 1.083%, -4.5 bps
- 30 year 1.815%, -5.6 bps
The US CPI cam in near expecations today. The headline figure came in at 1.4% vs 1.3% estimate. Ex food and energy, the index rose 1.6% as expected. Real average hourly earnings did increase more than expected at 3.7% vs 3.2%.
In Italy, Italia Viva leader Renzi ministers resigned from the government, putting PM Conte's government coalition at risk. It is still unlikely that there will be a snap election.
