Forex news for NY trading on August 15, 2018.
- Stocks close lower but it could have been worse
- 10 ForexLive memories #2: Election surprises
- EURUSD inches back toward the 200 week MA. Buyers try to bottom the pair.
- UK lawmaker asks constituents about another Brexit referendum
- Crude oil futures settle at $65.01, down -$2.03
- 10 ForexLive memories #3: Poking fun at central bankers
- White House says tariffs from Turkey are regrettable
- 10 ForexLive memories #4: We learned a few things
- Sentiment takes a turn for the better as Europe clocks off
- No change in the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast
- European major indices end with sharp declines on global fears
- New Zealand bans foreigners from buying houses
- Weekly US EIA oil inventories +6805K vs -2500K expected
- Gold slides on the dollars rise and tests the January 2017 low.
- US NAHB housing market index 67 vs 67 expected
- US business inventories for June 0.1% vs. 0.1% exp.
- Turkish lira continues to rebound but other emerging market currencies not so fortunate
- Finance ministers from Turkey and Germany will meet
- US July industrial production +0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- Canada July existing home sales +1.9% m/m vs +4.1% prior
- Fed's Bullard brushes off Turkey contagion fears
- US Q2 unit labor costs -0.9% vs 0.0% expected
- US July advance retail sales +0.5% vs +0.1% expected
- US empire manufacturing for Aug. 25.6 vs 20.0 exp.
- The JPY is the strongest while the CAD is the weakest at the start of the session
In other markets:
- Gold is down -$18.50 or -1.55% at $1175.65. Are central banks selling reserves ? The higher dollar is also sending the precious metal lower and technicals are bearish
- Turkish lira up 7.86% as the correction continues
- WTI crude oil fell -$2.10 or -3.13% to $64.94. The price fell on the back of higher inventories this week but support at the 200 day MA stalled the fall.
Stocks in the US ended the day lower but off the lowest levels. European stocks also ended their session with declines today:
The Nasdaq fell -1.23%. The France CAC fell -1.82%.
In the US debt market today, yields fell with the yield curve flattening as well. The 2-10 spread is down to 25.4 basis points:
The dollar gave up earlier gains on the day and is ending the session mixed. The greenback rose vs. the CAD which was the weakest currency of the day, and fell vs. the JPY which was the strongest on the flight into safety flows. Below is the ranking of the major currencies vs each other for the day. The CADJPY was the biggest moving currency with a decline of -0.94%.
Fundamentally today,
- US retail sales were stronger but had revisions. Nevertheless, they continued to show a strong consumer
- The Empire Manufacturing index was solid for that region as it rose more than expectations (25.6 vs 20.0)
- Industrial production was weaker than expectations at 0.1% vs 0.3% expected.
- Business inventories were spot on at +0.1%.
- Productivity rose the fastest in 3 years at the cost of lower labor costs.
- The Turkish Lira was helped by a report of a investment infusion from Qatar into Turkey
For some of the major pairs:
- The EURUSD bottomed at 1.1300 - a nice round number but could not get back above its 200 week MA at 1.1356. It is closing near that level however, and if it can be breached, there may be more nibbling from the long side (see post here).
- The USDJPY tumble with stocks moving from an Asian high of 111.426 to a NY low at 110.42 (100 pips from high to low). In the process, the price fell below the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 111.00 and 110.83 respectively. The pair has rebounded to 110.71 at the close. The recent ups and downs tell the story that the traders are just not all that in love with either direction at these levels.
- The GBPUSD made yet another 2018 low at 1.2661. That was the lowest level since June 22, 2017. The pair remains below the swing low from August 2017 at 1.2772, and a broken trend line on the daily chart at 1.2802. The pair closed the day at 1.2697.
