Forex news for US trading on March 15, 2016:

  • US Feb retail sales control group 0.0% vs +0.2% expected
  • Advance retail sales -0.1% vs -0.2% expected
  • Deep negative revisions undermine retail sales
  • UK Serious Fraud office closes investigations into FX fraud
  • Shots fired in Belgium during anti-terror raid
  • New Zealand dairy auction GDT price index -2.9% vs 1.4% prior
  • March 2016 US NAHB housing market index 58 vs 59 exp
  • January 2016 US business inventories 0.1% vs 0.0% exp m/m
  • March 2016 US Empire state manufacturing +0.62 vs -10.50 exp
  • February 2016 US PPI final demand -0.2% vs -0.2% exp m/m

Markets:

  • Gold down $2 to $1233
  • WTI crude down 74-cents to $36.44
  • S&P 500 down 3.7 points to 2016
  • US 10-year yields up 1 bps to 1.97%
  • JPY leads, NZD and GBP lag

Markets were moving after the BOJ in Asia and that continued in Europe but when the US ended the party was over. Markets largely chopped sideways and even the surprise from the retail sales report faded quickly.

The largest lasting move was in NZD after yet-another disappointing dairy auction. NZD/USD was at 0.6650 ahead of the data and fell as low as 0.6587 afterwards. Last at 0.6605.

USD/JPY was sold heavily after the BOJ and was given a fresh 30 pip kick to session lows after retail sales but found support just ahead of 112.50. Within an hour the retail sales disappointment had been erased and then the pair continued to creep higher in a choppy move to 113.12.

EUR/USD momentarily hit a session high of 1.1125 after retail sales but quickly sagged back down and then slipped to 1.1080. That was the range of US trading and the pair has consolidated in the middle since.

A wall of various worried hurt cable in European trading, including a bid drop after support at 1.4200 broke. It looked to have found a bit of support early in US trading as it rebounded to 1.4195 from 1.4151 but later in the day the selling resumed and it fell to a fresh daily low at 1.4139.

USD/CAD was boosted by soft oil but offers at 1.34 and just above continued the pair. A fall to 1.3340 was picked up but there was no enduring momentum on either side of the trade, which is typical ahead of a central bank decision.

AUD/USD made a series of lower highs 5-10 pips apart during US trading but rock solid bid at 0.7444 prevented it from making lower lows. Keep a close eye on that level in Asia-Pacific trading.