Forex news for NA trading on APril 16, 2018
- US major indices end the session with gains. Netflix earnings after the close.
- AUDUSD sits between technical levels ahead of RBA meeting minutes/China GDP
- Fed's Quarles: Bank system strengthened considerably in the past decade
- Trump walks back plan for more sanctions on Russia
- ECB Praet: Ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary
- Feds Kaplan very concerned fiscal stimulus will turn into a headwind in 3-5 years
- Trump to announce Richard Clarida as Fed vice chair today - report
- Fed's Bostic: Fed has not seen much movement in wages
- Looks like pharma inflation is back on the menu
- S&P moves above 200 hour MA. 50 and 100 day MA are the next key technical targets
- China on the currency manipulator watchlist is not news
- Bitcoin is back below the 100 hour MA (and $8000) level
- Fed's Kashkari: No signs of sudden acceleration in inflation
- White House says Trump still wants to bring troops home from Syria
- Audio recap: Tweeting the dollar down
- European stocks end the day lower.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls below 2%
- USDCAD keeps a lid on the pair against the 200 day MA
- Fed's Dudley: More than four hikes would no longer be 'gradual'
- Fed's Kaplan sees unemployment falling to 3.7% this year
- US February business inventories +0.6% vs +0.6% expected
- US April NAHB housing market index 69 vs 70 expected
- Be aware. The 100 day MA in the EURJPY held resistance at 133.00 area.
- Trump accuses Russia and China of currency devaluation
- US April Empire Manufacturing index 15.8 vs 18.4 estimate
- March US advance retail sales +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
- The GBP is the strongest, while the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
A snapshot of other markets near the NY session closes is showing:
- Spot gold of $.46 or 0.03% at $1345.88
- WTI crude oil futures down $1.03 or -1.53% at $66.36
- Btcoin fell $320 to $7979.
In the US stock market, the major indices rose
- S&P index rose 21.54 points or 0.81%
- NASDAQ index rose 49.635 points or 0.70%
- The Dow rose 213 points or 0.87%
In the US debt market, yields rose but came off high yield levels:
- two-year 2.37%, +2.0 basis points
- 5 year 2.683%, +1.0 basis points
- 10 year 2.30%, +0.3 basis points
- 30 year 3.027%, unchanged
The big stories today were that the markets did not really care.
The bombing of Syria has little impact on stocks, bonds or gold. You would have expected stock indices to a lower, bond yields to fall on a flight into relative safety of US debt, and for gold to move sharply higher. What happened was that stocks had solid gains. Bond yields were higher and gold ended the session unchanged. The "one and done" aspect of the military action was largely more of a show of force than anything.
In other news, the market also had little reaction to the 60 minute interview of Comey which was not flattering for the President, but Comey is not really a likable person.
From an economic standpoint today, retail sales came in better than expectations (0.6% vs 0.4%. estimate) but ex auto came in as expected at 0.2%, and ex auto and gas was less than expectations at 0.3% vs 0.4% est.
Empire manufacturing came in lower than expected at 15.8 vs 18.6% estimate.
The USD was weaker coming into the NA session and lost more ground.
The GBPUSD led the way, with the pair rising 0.74% into the US session close. That pair is closing near session highs. Technicals had a play in the run higher. The GBPUSD closed Friday right around the key 200 week MA. Today, the low for the day bottomed just ahead of that MA at 1.4225. The low reached 1.4226. That gave the buyers the go ahead to push higher and they did. The pair is closing right around the 2018 high at 1.4344 and at a topside trend line at that level too. A move above that level in the new day will likely lead to more upside potential. Be aware (see chart below).
The EURUSD was also higher in trading today. It moved up to test last week's highs at 1.2395.The high reached 1.2394 in the early NA session before rotating lower and trading in a 40 pip range for the rest of the trading day. Still, the pair is ending the session higher by 0.41% (dollar down by that amount).
The AUDUSD had a relatively quieter day, but positioned itself between support and resistance ahead of the RBA meeting minutes and key economic data out of China (GDP, industrial production and retail sales). For a detailed look at the technicals heading into those releases, CLICK HERE.
