Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Retail sales ok. Philly Fed strong. Claims data solid.
Forex news for near trading on January 16, 2020
- Major indices close at record levels and near intraday highs
- New highs for the stocks as the day heads to the final bell
- What is on tap tomorrow in the US?
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $58.52
- Senate swears in Chief Justice Roberts for the Trump impeachment trial
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 1.8% from 2.3% last week
- The USMCA is approved in the Senate
- US Labor Department to ban computers in lockup room
- Oil finds a bid but the narrow range continues
- Fed's Bowman: Fed funds likely to remain at currently levels absent change in outlook
- US November business inventories -0.2% vs -0.2% expected
- US January NAHB housing market index 75 vs 74 expected
- ADP Canada December employment +46.2K vs +30.9K prior
- Philadelphia Fed business outlook for January 17.0 versus 3.7 estimates
- US initial jobless claims 204K versus 218K estimate
- US December advance retail sales +0.3% vs +0.3% expected
- The NZD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
In other markets as the day comes toward the close:
- Spot gold is trading down $2.72 or -0.72% at $1553.64
- WTI crude oil futures are trading up $0.66 was 1.14% at $58.47
The major indices closed at record levels and near the highs for the day as well:
- S&P index
- NASDAQ index
- Dow industrial average
In the US debt market yields were up marginally higher with the 2 year up 1 basis point and the 10 year up to basis points. Below are the ranges and changes for the yield curve.
In the forex market in the New York session the dollar recovered earlier declines. At the start of the NY session, the greenback was down versus all the major currency pairs lead by a -0.51% fall vs the NZD, a -0.33% fall vs the AUD and a -0.24% fall vs the GBP. It was only higher vs the JPY at +0.07%.
At the end of the day, the dollar was still lower vs the NZD but only by -0.33% on the day an was lower by -0.28% vs the GBP, but had turned positive or near unchanged vs the other currencies (see the % changes of the USD vs the major currencies in the chart below.
Although the NZD and the JPY remained the strongest and the weakest on the day, the dollar recovered nicely.
Helping the recovery was some decent data. The retail sales data was ok. The headline numbers were a touch higher than expectations but revisions to the Control group and the ex auto and gas breakdowns, took some of the good away. So overall it was as expected.
What was beneficial to the dollar today was the Philadelphia Fed business outlook index which came in at 17.0 versus 3.8 estimate and 2.4 last month. That rise took the index to near the high going back to the 4Q of 2018.
Jobless claims were also better-than-expected at 204K vs 218K estimate and 214K last week. Admittedly, seasonals can have a positive or negative impact to the data around the new year, but on the surface it was a solid number.
The NAHB housing market index was a touch higher at 75 versus 74 estimate.
- The USDJPY remains above its trailing 100 hour moving average at 109.906 (currently). and looking to test the high price from Tuesday at 110.204. A move above would open up space for further upside potential. It will take a move below the rising 100 hour moving average to give sellers a victory. There is additional support at 109.675-723 area. That area was the ceiling in the month of December and into January.
- The EURUSD moved higher in the London morning session but stalled against a topside trend line on the hourly chart at 1.1172. The inability to extend above that trend line give sellers the go ahead to push back to the downside. The positive tone for the US dollar push the price below the 200 hour MA, the 200 day MA and the 100 hour moving average. All of them are at 1.1136 going into the new trading day. KEY level. That is where the current price is trading. So the market will have a decision to make in the new trading day - go back higher and away from the cluster of MAs, or go lower and away from the same cluster of MAs. Go with the flow and momentum.
- While the EURUSD was going lower, the GBPUSD was moving higher. There is more chatter about the BOE cutting rates and there was some weakness in the GBPUSD that took the price toward the 100 hour MA below at 1.30208. However, the price snapped back higher and above the 100 bar MA and 200 hour MA currently at 1.3065 area. The price is above each of those MAs at 1.30742 giving the pair a "little more bull" into the new day.
- The NZDUSD closed higher (and the currency was the strongest) but it also fell from the intraday high at 0.66646. The fall from the high, however, did find support buyers against its 100 hour moving average at 0.66256 in the NY afternoon session. The pair is trading at 0.66401 near the close. In the new day, stay above the 100 hour moving average at 0.66256, and the buyers are in control. Move below and the bullish bets are off.
Wishing our friends in the Asian Pacific session a happy weekend. Good fortune with your trading