Forex news for New York trading on November 16, 2016

  • Australian employment report to be released in the new trading day
  • US crude oil futures settle at $45.57 per barrel
  • Fed's Mester. It is appropriate now to raise rates
  • EURUSD moved higher, and moved back lower
  • Forex technical analysis. What is to like about the AUDUSD?
  • Fed's Yellen's prepared text for testimony to be released at 8:00 AM ET
  • Where's Adam? He is over in London and giving interviews too...
  • BOC Lane: BOC could wait to see impact of the Fed move on Canada rates
  • European stocks end the session lower
  • EURUSD breaks lower...The unravel/trend lower continues
  • Russian energy minister turns oil around...
  • DOE Crude oil inventories 5274K vs 1000K estimate
  • Nasdaq goes into positive territory. Oil inventory data up next
  • Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD seeing choppy action
  • November 2016 US NAHB Housing market index 63 vs 63 exp
  • We will look at the data ahead of the Dec FOMC says Kashkari
  • October 2016 US industrial production 0.0% vs 0.2% exp m/m
  • BOE's Cunliffe: There are limits to above target inflation
  • Canada manufacturing sales for September 0.3% versus 0.1% estimate
  • October 2016 US PPI final demand 0.0% vs 0.3% exp m/m
  • Trump will be a one hit wonder says Bill Gross
  • The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

In other markets:

  • S&P index closed down -3.45 points or -0.16% The Nasdaq composite index closed up 18.96 points or +0.36% . The Dow industrial average is down -54.92 points or -0.29%.
  • The US debt market is mixed with the 2 year at 1.0001%, up 1 basis points, the 10 year at 2.222% unchanged on the day, and the 30 year 2.923%, -3 basis points
  • Crude oil futures are trading at $45.48, $-.34 or -0.72%
  • Spot gold is trading at $1226, $-2.80 or -0.23%
  • The USD is strongest vs the AUD today. It is weakest against the CAD although the GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF , and USDCAD are all close to unchanged after up and down trading days.

The dollar was up on the day but most the change occurred vs. the AUD, NZD and EUR. The other currency pairs were little changed

Fundamentally, US PPI came out lower than expectations. That helped to take some of the dollar gains seen overnight. NAHB housing market index (taken before the run up in mortgages post election) came in as expected at 63. That was unchanged from last month. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization were weaker than expectations. That helped to weaken the greenback a little in the NY session.

In other markets, the stock market was mixed with the Nasdaq outpacing the Dow and the S&P. The movements in the US equities was limited today.

Bond yields started the day up about 4 or so basis points, but has given up most of those gains. The 30 year bond yield is down 3 basis points.

Gold is little changed and Crude oil swung down and then back up on the back of higher inventories, followed by comments from Russia about feeling good about OPEC production cuts.

Currencies that the USD stayed strong against were the EUR and the AUD. The EURUSD continues to remain under pressure after falling below a technical floor area between 1.0777 and 1.0821. Today, the pair fell to new year lows taking out the lows from January at 1.0710/11 and the low from Monday at 1.07086. During a correction in the NY afternoon, the price moved up to 1.0713 before moving back lower. Guess what? That area (from 1.07086 to 1.0713) is now a solid resistance level. If this pair is to go higher, it needs to get and stay above that level. ON the downside, there is a double bottom at the 1.0666 area. A move below should solicit more selling.

The AUDUSD is another pair that the USD had gains against in trading today. For this pair, the price fell below the 200 day MA at the 0.7510 level. Yesterday that MA held support. You would have to go back to early June for the last time the price of this pair traded below that MA level. The break took the price down to the 50% retracement of the move up from the end of May low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.74609 level. In the new trading day, the Australian employment report will be released. If it is stronger than expected, a move back above the 200 day MA should be more bullish. While a more bearish report, will have the pair trading toward 0.7400 and then 61.8 retracement level at 0.7386.

Yesterday, the NZDUSD tested support at a trend line at the 0.7066 area. The price traded higher (up to 0.7113) and down through that support line to 0.7034. The current price is trading around the trend line level at 0.7066 (so sitting on the bullish or bearish fence). A level to be aware if there is more downside momentum is the 200 day MA at the 0.7020 level. The price of the NZDUSD has not traded below that MA since March 16, 2016. I would expect buyers against the level on the first test.

The GBPUSD traded higher and lower in choppy trading. The NY session used the 200 hour MA above at 1.24657 as a ceiling. On the downside, the 50% retracement of the move up from the October 25th low held support yesterday at 1.2377. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart is also at that level currently. With the price at 1.2433 currently, we remain between those extremes as we head into the new day.

The USDJPY moved back above the 38.2% of the move down from the 2015 high at the 109.267 level. The high price extended to to 109.75. However, the NY session - impacted by the weaker data, lower bond yields - led to a move back down. As we head toward the close, the pair is back below the retracement level at 109.267. It is also down slightly on the day.

As mentioned the Australian employment will be released at 7:30 PM ET/0030 GMT. In Europe, CPI data will be released. US CPI will also be released with Philly Fed Mfg index and weekly unemployment claims. At 10 AM chair Yellen will testify on the economy. The prepared text will be released at 8 AM ET. Feds Dudley (at 8:50 AM ET) and Brainard (at 12 PM ET) will also speak.

Good fortune with your trading.