Forex news for North American trading on November 16, 2021
- Fed's Daly says running a sustained expansion gives people time to come back to the jobs market
- Major indices close higher on the day. S&P closes just below record close
- USDJPY cracks to a new high going back to March 2017
- Pres. Biden: He and Xi have a lot to follow up on
- Fed's Daly: Patience is the boldest, best action
- What is on the economic calendar for tomorrow's North American session
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $80.76
- Fauci: It is conceivable that Covid 19 in the US gets downgraded to endemic
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate rises to 8.7% from 8.2%
- Bank of Canada's Schembri: Assessing labor markets impact on inflation has become more difficult
- Major European indices are ending the session with mixed results.
- Treasury Secretary Yellen: Inflation might subside by the second half of 2022
- EIA says any release of oil from SPR would only have a short lived impact
- US September business inventories 0.7% versus 0.7% estimate
- NAHB housing market index 83 versus 80 estimate
- Global dairy trade price index rises 1.9%
- US October industrial production 1.6% versus 0.7% estimate
- Feds Bullard: Core PCE is quite high. Fed should speed up taper
- US October import price index 1.2% vs 1.0% estimate
- US retail sales for October 1.7% versus 1.2% estimate
- Canada housing starts for October 236.6 K versus estimate 255.0K
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Biden-Xi meeting uneventful, dollar firmer ahead of US retail sales
- Goldman Sachs sees S&P 500 index rising to 5,100 by the end of next year
- The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
The USD continued its run to the upside. The USD was the second strongest of the major currencies (behind the GBP today). The weakest of the majors was the NZD.
The dollar index (DXY) reached a new high level going back to July 2020. The index is up four the last five trading days on it's way to a new high for the year at 95.978. The next major target comes in at 96.094 which is the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 2020 high
With the DXY reaching new highs, so too did the EURUSD. That pair traded to its lowest level since July 13, 2020, and in the process tested a lower trendline on the daily chart at 1.1311. The low for the day reach 1.1308 and currently trades at 1.1317. The 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 2020 low comes in at 1.12876. That level would be the next target on further downside momentum
For the USDJPY, it traded to a new 2021 high taking out the previous high of 114.691. The price also traded above the November 2017 high at 114.728 taking the pair to the highest level since the week of March 12, 2017. The price is currently trading at 114.78 just above the November 2017 high. The March 2017 high comes in at 115.50. On further momentum that would be the next major target.
The GBPUSD is closing higher on the day as focus for GBP traders was on the better than expected jobs report which keeps a potential BOE hike in December a possibility. Nevertheless, the spike in the London session did stall ahead of its falling 200 hour moving average currently at 1.34648 (it would take a move above to increase the bullish bias). That led to a rotation back down toward its 100 hour moving average at 1.3410 where buyers leaned against the support. So although the dollar moved higher, the GBP was even stronger today.
The USDCHF rose for the fifth consecutive day (up 211 pips in those five days). In the process the price tested the October told high at 0.93117 and stalled. The price is currently trading at 0.9300.
The USDCAD is trading back above its 100 day moving average at 1.25435. Recall from last week, the price moved above that level on Thursday, and held support against the moving average level on Friday, but fell back below during yesterday's trade. The move back above the moving average tilts the technical bias back to the upside once again.
The AUDUSD moved higher in the early Asian session but found resistance sellers against its 200 hour moving average at 0.7368 (at the time). In the New York session, the price fell below the 100 hour moving average at 0.73223, and stay below that level. The wander to the downside took the price to the next target area between 0.7287 and 0.72908. That is just above the November low of 0.72763. The current price is trading at 0.7301 after holding support against that swing area.
In other markets today:
- The S&P closed just below another new record high. The S&P index rose 18.1 points or 0.39% to 4700.91. That was just below the record all-time high close level at 4701.69 .
- The NASDAQ index was the best performer with a gain of 120.02 points or 0.76% at 15973.87. The index is around 0.3% from its all-time record high close
- Dow industrial average closed up 54.77 points or 0.15% at 36142.23. Intraday, the high change reached 229.16 points.
- The US debt market, yields traded above and below unchanged, but is trading mostly higher going into the close with a steeper yield curve.
- Bitcoin fell sharply today and is trading just above the 60,000 level at $60,437. I guess it wasn't hedge against inflation today (down $3000)
- Gold is trading down $12.57 or -0.67% at $1850
- Crude oil is trading at $80.65 down $0.26 or -0.32%
Fundamentally today retail sales and industrial production/capacity utilization all came out stronger than expected. Retail sales been up for three consecutive months as consumers are flush with cash/wealth from a rising stock and housing markets. There may have also been a boost from early Christmas buying as consumers worry about supply chain issues into the holiday.