Forex trading new for September 16, 2016
- CFTC Commitement of traders EUR and GBP positions are cut in the current week
- The big five events to watch for in the week ahead
- The lobster-trade is the story in the pound today (as more headlines hit)
- S&P 500 touches session low
- Another word for 'communication'
- The sterling slide isn't over yet, as Hammond gives up on EU access
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 416 vs 414 prior
- Citigroup on how to hang on to a losing trade until it hits zero
- USDJPY takes a run through another target
- US household net worth hits $89.1 trillion
- Not the best of weeks for European stocks
- USDJPY to test 100 on BOJ disappointment - Danske Bank
- The London fixing takes the dollar higher vs EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY
- Sign up for our pre-FOMC webinar
- US dollar adds a bit more to the daily move
- The US doesn't have an inflation problem, it has a regulation problem
- Inflation expectations remain low says Michigan's Curtin
- Forex technical analysis: GBPUSD trading at new day lows. Below 1.3100
- September 2016 US Michigan consumer sentiment flash 89.8 vs 90.8 exp
- A range trade is shaping up in the S&P 500 (and that's not a good thing)
- Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD traders wrestle with the 100 day MA again
- Euro and pound feeling the wrath of the dollar bulls
- Pound gets that sinking feeling as the negative pressures mount
- You have to have some sympathy for the Fed
- There's a certain Halloween feel to markets today
- Canada manufacturing sales for July +0.1% vs. +1.0 estimate
- August 2016 US real weekly -0.4% vs 0.6% prior m/m
- The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day
The dollar was stronger today. Helping the greenback was a better than expected CPI which came in at +0.2% for the headline (vs +0.1%) and +0.3% for the ex food and energy (est. +0.2%). There was other data like real average earnings and Univ of Michigan Sentiment which was weaker at 89.8 vs 90.6, but it was the inflation that helped the dollar outperform.
Although the dollar rose, the biggest gains were against the GBP which fell apart. The GBPUSD traded with 4 different big figures on the day from 1.3200 to 1.2900 (the high was 1.3246 while the low extended to 1.2998. The range for the day was the largest since July 15th. In the move down, the pair fell below a number of key technical levels, but the 1.3054-58 was one of the more important areas. It defines a bullish above/bearish below area going back to the post-Brexit trading range. The pair sliced through that level without much of a fight. That puts the bears more firmly in control.
The EURUSD was another pair that hit the skids. Like the GBPUSD, the momentum lower started and it kept going and going. Remember, 24 hours ago the range for the trading week was only 78 pips. For today alone the range was 101 pips. There have been bigger days - for sure - but when traders had a chance to make some money today. The pair did stall just ahead of the 200 day MA. That level comes in at 1.11447. The low reached 1.1149. Earlier in the day the price fell below the 100 day MA at 1.1203. That will be a level to stay below in next weeks trading on a Monday rebound.
The USDJPY had less of a impactful day today. The range was only 75 pips - below the 99 pip average over the last 22 days. The pair may have been influenced technically by a cluster of resistance level starting with the 200 hour MA (at 102. 18) and ending with the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart (at 102.38 currently). In between those two extremes were the 100 hour MA (at 102.27), the 38.2% retracement (at 102.33) and a trend line that slasher through the area. The topside level at 102.38 was ultimately breached in a NY afternoon push, but that break failed and the price is ending the week between the extremes at 102.32. Next week a move outside the range will be eyed.
In the US debt market today, the yield curves flattened with the 2 year yield up 4 basis points while the 10 year yield was unchanged. For the week, the 2 year yield was down about 2 basis points to 0.7662% (last week) from 0.7821. The 10 year yield was up about 1 basis point from 1.6750% (last week) to 1.6874% currently. Overall, some ups and downs but yields are ending near unchanged.
Below are the days changes of the major currencies vs each other. The USD was the strongest currency with gains against all the majors, while the GBP is the weakest.
For the week, the the US major stock indices are ending higher with the Nasdaq leading the charge. The European and Asian major indices all ended lower. Although the Nasdaq was the biggest gainer it was Apple which led the charge. It rose over 11% on the week. Deutsche Bank was a huge decliner today - falling -9.38%. The US Justice Dept fined them 14B for their role in the mortgage crisis. Although the fine will likely be reduced, it highlighted the weakness of one of Europe's largest banks. The failed the US stress test. Their market capitalization is down. Too big to fail? That bank could be a huge concern.
Crude oil prices this week are down -9.11%, while gold fell -1.4%. Most agricultural commodities were lower with the exception of Sugar.
Have a great weekend!. Go Tigers!