Forexlive Americas FX news wrap. Nasdaq 100 trades to a new all time record but backs off
Forex news for NY trading on April 17, 2019
- US stocks end the session with modest losses.
- Herman Cain says he has no intention of withdrawing name from Fed consideration
- Crude oil futures settle at $63.76
- Trump says he has a good feeling on Chinese trade talks
- Fed's Bullard: Yield curve steepening as economy improves this year
- Beige Book: Economic activity grew at slight-to-moderate pace
- US and China negotiators aiming for a signing ceremony in late May or early June - report
- More from Fed's Harker: Does not see inflation accelerating quickly
- Goldman Sachs raises 1Q GDP tracker to 2.1% from 1.7% last
- Fed's Harker: Repeats forecast for at most one hike in 2019 and one in 2020
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q growth 2.4% vs 2.3% last.
- If you think about trading USDCAD, take two aspirin and lie down until the feeling goes away.
- US weekly oil inventories -1396K vs +2300K expected
- Conditions are ripe for increased EUR demand in the near-term - MUFG
- US February wholesale inventories +0.2% vs +0.3% expected
- Canada international merchandise trade -$2.90B vs -$3.25B expected
- US February trade balance -$49.4B vs -$53.4B expected
- Canada March CPI +0.7% vs +0.7% m/m expected
- The AUD is the strongest, while the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins
- ECB's Nowotny: Unlikely to cut June forecast 'significantly'
In other markets:
- Spot gold fell $-2.48 or -0.19% in $1274.36
- WTI crude oil futures what trading down $.32 or -0.49% at $63.73
In the US debt market yields were little changedin a up and down session:
- 2 year 2.402%, -1.0 basis points. The high-yield reach 4.27%. The low yield reached 2.39%
- 10 year 2.590%, unchanged. The high reached 2.62%. The low extended to 2.577%
- 30 year 2.991%, unchanged. The high reached 3.009%. The low yield reached 2.978%
The NASDAQ index it reached a high of 8052.395 but closed at 7996.07 - down -4.147 points or -0.05%. The high got closer to the all-time high at 8133.298.
For the S&P index, the high price today reached 2918.00 today but closed at 2900.45. Its all-time high extended to 2940.91 back on September 21, 2018.
There is more work to be done to retrace fully the end of year declines in the major indices, but with the Nasdaq 100s new high today, traders may be encouraged to make a run in the broader indices as well.
In Europe today, the German Dax and France's CAC closed higher (0.43% and 0.62% respectively), but the UK FTSE was little changed (+0.02%). Below are the ranges and changes of some of the major North American and European indices.
In fundamental news, today, the US trade numbers came in with a smaller than expected deficit of $-49.4 billion (versus expectations of $-53.4 billion. The lower deficit helped to increase the estimates for 1Q growth. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 GDP tracker moved up to 2.4% from 2.3% previously. Goldman Sachs raised their estimate to 2.1% from 1.7% previously.
Also wholesale inventories in the US came in at 0.2% versus 0.3% expected.
In the forex market, the USD moved higher in the NY session led by gains in the NZD and CHF. The strongest currency of the majors is the EUR, while the NZD is the weakest.
The NZDUSD moved sharply lower at the start of the Asian sesson on the back of weaker CPI data. However, the pair was dragged higher after better China data led to runs in the risk currencies (including the NZD). The rise had it's limits, when the price reached the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). The move down took the price back below its 200 day MA at 0.6729. That MA, will be a barometer in the new trading day.
For the CHF, that pair continues its "trend-like" move higher today, and reached the highest level since March 12. The CHF has been weakening since SNBs Jordan said over the weekend that central bank could cut rates and/or intervene to weaken the CHF. Technically, the pair moved above a swing area at 1.0092-97 in the NY afternoon session, and now targets the March high at 1.01236. The pair trades at 1.0106 near the close for the day.
Looking at other pairs:
- The AUSUSD will have the employment numbers to contend with in the new day. Technically, the pair today failed on the first break above the 200 day MA since March 2018. That MA comes in at 0.7192. However, the low off that high stalled right at the 100 hour MA (currently at 0.7165). A move above the 200 day MA would be more bullish, while a move below the 100 hour MA at 0.7165 would be more bearish.
- The USDCAD had a wild ride today (see: If you think about trading USDCAD, take two aspirin and lie down until the feeling goes away.) The inflation data showed higher than expected core inflation. That sent the price below a key floorish type level at 1.32966. When the price moved to 1.3273 and bounced back abvoe the 1.32966 level, shorts covered and ran the price higher. The correction stalled near the 200 and 100 hour MAs at 1.3344-50 area. Stay below that area will keep the barometer more to the downside. Move above, and there should be more upside momentum (again). The 1.3402 is a double top.