Forex news for March 17, 2017
- US stocks end the day little changed
- A technical look at the EURUSD daily chart.
- CFTC commitment of traders: Shorts in GBP at record levels
- WTI crude oil settles at $48.78 /BBL
- Here's something green to go with your St. Patrick's Day pint at work
- Trump /Merkel press conference begins
- Trump praises German apprenticeship model
- Latest IFOP poll: Le Pen 26.5%. Macron 26.0%, Fillon 18%
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 631 vs 617 prior
- European stock traders seemed to have spent the day at the pub
- Snapchart: NZDUSD 100 bar MA on 4 hour and 38.2% retracement
- NY Fed Nowcast estimate for GDP dips to 2.8% from 3.1% last week
- Canadian economic data has been surprisingly good but CAD can't hold gains
- Russia's Novak. Russia to maintain oil output cut through end of June
- Kuroda says G20 will pay close attention to what Mnuchin says
- U Michigan consumer sentiment 97.6 vs 97.0 expected
- Fed's Kashkari: I dissented because the Fed is falling short on inflation
- US February industrial production 0.0% vs +0.2% expected
- Canadian January manufacturing sales +0.6% vs -0.3% expected
In other markets:
- US equities were down/little changed: S&P down -0.13%. Nasdaq was unchanged. Dow was down -0.10%
- US bond yields were lower: 2 year 1.316%, down -1.5 bp. 5 year 2.02%, down 3 bp. 10 year 2.500%, down 4 bp. 30 year 3.11%, -4.1 bp
- Spot Gold rose by $3 to $1229.29
- WTI Crude oil, $48.69, -$0.08 or -0.14%
The week was pretty chock full of market moving stuff
There was Central Bank decisions in Switzerland, Japan, US and UK.
- The Fed tightened as expected by 0.25% with the dot plot staying the same and the statement and Yellen being a little less hawkish then the market expected. The Fed is still expected to tighten two more times.
- The BOE surprised with a vote for a tightening AND a more hawkish statement. It was supposed to go the other way with the US being more hawkish and UK being more concerned about the Brexit situation (although that will be dragged out). Also of significance this week in the UK, is the path to triggering Article 50 was complete with only PM May pulling the trigger.
- The SNB kept rates unchanged as did the BOJ.
- ECB Nowotny surprised the market with comments that the ECB could raise the deposit rate ahead of the main refi rate. That sent the EURUSD higher on Thursday.
The Dutch election came and went without an upset from the Freedom party. France is up next and polls continue to show that Le Pen will likely make it to the second round vs Macron, but will lose that battle. A Le Pen victory would be big trouble for the EU>
We had US CPI and retail sales., with US CPI coming in as expected. Retail sales showed modest gains of 0.1% to 0.2% for the respective breakdowns, but the prior month was revised higher. There is a discrepancy with regard to the GDP estimates for the US with the Atlanta Fed at 0.9% while the NY Fed projects a 2.8% increase. Both were lower this week.
Employment in UK saw employment change up by 92K vs 87K estimate. The Jobless claims fell -11.3K after a -41.4K decline in the prior month.
Overall for the week the dollar fell against all the major currencies
The AUDUSD was the strongest of the majors. The AUD rose by 2.15% vs. the dollar. Technically, the pair based on Monday and Tuesday against the 200 day MA and shot higher on the Fed decision. The highs from mid February are the next targets. The correction off the peak has stayed above the 38.2% of the trend move higher this week. The buyers are remaining in control.
The EURUSD traded below the 100 day MA on Tuesday, but reversed and pushed higher on Wednesday. The 1.0800 and then 1.0819 are the next upside targets to get to and through in the news week (see chart below). The 1.0819 is the 50% of the move down from the November election high.
The GBPUSD was on the verge of making a serious break lower on Tuesday but the Fed on Wednesday and the BOE on Thursday reversed that trend. The pair on Friday, tested the 50% AND the 100 day MA at the 1.2407 area. Guess what? That is a key level going into the new trading week. Move above is more bullish, but don't be surprised to see traders either lean against it or trade a failed break above it in the new week.
The USDJPY fell and closed below the 100 day MA for the 1st times since October 2016 on Friday. That MA comes in a 113.058 and will now be resistance for the pair in the new trading week.
The USDCHF fell to the 505 and swing level on Friday and that stalled the fall (around 0.9950 area). On a break lower the 200 day MA looms. That MA stalled the fall back in early February. This week the pair fell below the 100 day MA after holding above on Monday and Tuesday. The Fed statement shoved it off the ledge.
The NZDUSD stalled earlier against the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart on Wednesday. Then made another run at the lower MA on Friday. The price did break above the MA line in the NY afternoon but failed. (at 0.70259). The 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 23rd high is also in the area. If we are to go higher, and extend further from the double bottom, those levels need to be broken....
For the day, below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The JPY was the strongest currency for the day, while the EUR was the weakest.
Have a great weekend to all!!!!
