Forex news for NY trading on February 19, 2019
- NY Feds Williams (voter): Would need different outlook for inflation/growth to change
- US crude oil settles at $56.09
- UK conservative Baker: Following meeting with PM May, the Malthouse compromise is alive
- Pres. Trump: Spoke to Kim Jong Un. Looks forward to summitt
- White House Hassett on CNBC: 3.1% in 2018 looks spot on
- More Juncker: Expects friendly talks with PM May on Feb 20
- USD moves lower. If yuan can't fall (it has to rise), and the USD needs to fall
- US said to press for stable Yuan as China trade talks resume
- Feds Mester to reporters: Fed should announce B/S plans well in advance
- The GBP remains the strongest on the day while the USD moves to the weakest.
- Provisional closes for European markets are mostly lower
- More Mester: US consumer is in good shape
- No stopping the GBPUSD. Cracks above 200 day MA without much problem
- Feds Mester: Comfortable slowing or stopping B/S rolloffs in 2019
- ECB Praet: EU needs to be careful about industrial policy.
- The NAHB housing market index for Feb 62 vs 59 estimate
- GDT price index at the most recent auction rises 0.9%
- Gold marches to 10-month high, what's next
- Fed's Mester: Expect Fed funds may move 'a bit higher' if economy performs as she expects
- Strong Walmart earnings add another piece to confusing US retail puzzle
- The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as traders enter
In other markets near the close:
- Spot gold is trading up $13.37 at $1340.26. The precious metals trading at the highest level since April 2018 and looks toward the swing highs from 2017 and 2018 at $1357.61 in $1366.15
- WTI crude oil futures are trading up $.49 or 0.88% at $56.08. The API private inventory data will be released at 4:30 PM ET/0930 GMT. The DOE data will be released on Thursday due to the Presidents' Day holiday on Monday
- The price of bitcoin on Coinbase is trading up $79.76 at $3931.26. Technically, the digital currency is looking to close above its 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) for the 2nd time since September 2018
In the European and US stock markets, European shares were mostly lower on the day (the exception being the German DAX which rose 0.09%), while the US indices eked out modest gains. Below are the final ranges and % changes for the major indices.
In the debt markets today, US yields are ending lower with the 5 year yield falling the most. The 2-10 year spread is fairly low at 14.62 basis points.
The benchmark 10 year yields in Europe were mostly lower with UK yields and Portugal yields bucking that trend.
From an economic and event standpoint, Feds Mester - who is typically more of a hawk - softened up a bit by saying she is Comfortable slowing or stopping B/S rolloffs in 2019, although she did not rule out a hike later in the year.
The NAHB housing market index did rebound to 62 vs 59 estimate and 58 last month. Although higher, is is still below the high of 74 reached in 2018.
The GBP and the USD were the major movers in the forex market today. For the GBP, there seemed to be a squeeze higher ahead of the meeting between UK PM May and EU officials tomorrow. As the clock ticks toward March 29, extending the deadline, coming to a compromise and new deal that could pass the muster with the UK lawmakers, is a possibility. Traders got caught in a rush to the upside for the pound.
For the USD, there was a headline saying
That sent the USDCNH lower and with it, an already weak dollar got even weaker.
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other.
Some technical levels for some major pairs as we head into the new trading day:
- The EURUSD raced above the 100 and 200 hour MAs and a trend line at 1.1328. The 38.2% of the move down from the Jan 31 high comes in at 1.13405 and that is where the pair is trading into the close. It will be a barometer for bulls and bears in the new day
- The GBPUSD stalled for about 30 minutes at the 1.3000 level. The 200 day MA was at 1.30004. The price shot up to 1.3072 before settling. The 61.8% of the move down from the Jan high comes in at 1.30465 and that will be close support.
