Forex news for NY trading on February 19, 2019

In other markets near the close:

  • Spot gold is trading up $13.37 at $1340.26. The precious metals trading at the highest level since April 2018 and looks toward the swing highs from 2017 and 2018 at $1357.61 in $1366.15
Gold shot higher today on the back of the fall in the USD
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading up $.49 or 0.88% at $56.08. The API private inventory data will be released at 4:30 PM ET/0930 GMT. The DOE data will be released on Thursday due to the Presidents' Day holiday on Monday
  • The price of bitcoin on Coinbase is trading up $79.76 at $3931.26. Technically, the digital currency is looking to close above its 100 day moving average (blue line in the chart below) for the 2nd time since September 2018
Bitcoin is closing above its 100 day MA for the 2nd day in a row and first time since September 2018

In the European and US stock markets, European shares were mostly lower on the day (the exception being the German DAX which rose 0.09%), while the US indices eked out modest gains. Below are the final ranges and % changes for the major indices.

The US stocks eke out modest gains, while European shares were mostly lower

In the debt markets today, US yields are ending lower with the 5 year yield falling the most. The 2-10 year spread is fairly low at 14.62 basis points.

US yields are ending the day lower with the 2-10 year spread narrowing to 14.85 bps

The benchmark 10 year yields in Europe were mostly lower with UK yields and Portugal yields bucking that trend.

10 year benchmark yields in europe are mostly lower today

From an economic and event standpoint, Feds Mester - who is typically more of a hawk - softened up a bit by saying she is Comfortable slowing or stopping B/S rolloffs in 2019, although she did not rule out a hike later in the year.

The NAHB housing market index did rebound to 62 vs 59 estimate and 58 last month. Although higher, is is still below the high of 74 reached in 2018.

The GBP and the USD were the major movers in the forex market today. For the GBP, there seemed to be a squeeze higher ahead of the meeting between UK PM May and EU officials tomorrow. As the clock ticks toward March 29, extending the deadline, coming to a compromise and new deal that could pass the muster with the UK lawmakers, is a possibility. Traders got caught in a rush to the upside for the pound.

For the USD, there was a headline saying

That sent the USDCNH lower and with it, an already weak dollar got even weaker.

Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other.

% changes of the major currencies vs each other

Some technical levels for some major pairs as we head into the new trading day:

  • The EURUSD raced above the 100 and 200 hour MAs and a trend line at 1.1328. The 38.2% of the move down from the Jan 31 high comes in at 1.13405 and that is where the pair is trading into the close. It will be a barometer for bulls and bears in the new day
  • The GBPUSD stalled for about 30 minutes at the 1.3000 level. The 200 day MA was at 1.30004. The price shot up to 1.3072 before settling. The 61.8% of the move down from the Jan high comes in at 1.30465 and that will be close support.