Forexlive Americas FX News wrap: Potential government shutdown does not phase markets
Forex news for NA traders on January 19, 2018
- Stocks close at highs for the day. Record closes for the S&P and NASDAQ.
- CFTC commitment of traders: EUR longs remain high. JPY shorts also lofty.
- Earnings calendar for next week is heating up
- US crude oil futures settle at $63.37, down $.58
- Feds Williams: Risks balanced, economy could do better than expected
- Sen. Schumer: Some progress made. Still a number of disagreements
- What will Trump speak about in Davos next week?
- Fed's Williams: US economy moving from headwinds to tailwinds
- Lost in all the talk of the government shutdown, the world's most important chart is breaking down
- Fed's Quarles lays out roadmap for easing bank regulations
- Baker Hughes oil rig count 747 versus 752 last week
- AUDUSD keeps the bullish run alive. What would derail the run?
- EUR/USD: Going against the near-term momentum - BTMU
- German government raises 2018 GDP forecast to 2.3% - report
- Flight into the safety of the CHF stalls. USDCHF trades at day highs.
- Merkel: Optimistic that SPD delegates will give green light for coalition talks
- European stocks climb to close out a solid week
- The NY Fed GDP Nowcast estimate for 4Q up to 3.94% from 3.88%
- The one thing you can't ignore on the bitcoin chart from this week's price action
- Russian economy minister says crude unlikely to exceed $60 in medium term
- US January prelim U Mich consumer sentiment 94.4 vs 97.0 expected
- Germany's Schauble says failure to agree coalition deal is not a catastrophe
- The market isn't too concerned about a US government shutdown... yet
- Amazon Prime inflation on the way....
- Bank of Italy see 2018 GDP growth of around 1.4%, same as 2017
- Belgian January consumer confidence +4 vs +2 prior
- Canadian Fin Min fretted after BOC hikes but a staff report told him to calm down
- Canada November manufacturing sales +3.4% vs +2.0% expected
- The JPY is the strongest while the NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Pound loses ground in the wake of soggy UK data. Bitcoin ranging.
A snapshot of other markets is showing:
- Spot gold up to $4.60 or 0.33% at $1331.72
- WTI crude oil futures down $.42 or -0.67% at $63.52
- Bitcoin on the Bitstamp is trading at $11,390, down $215. The digital currency is trading just below its 100 hour moving average at $11,585, but above its 100 day MA at $10,769.
- US major stock indices closed that the highs for the day. Record closes for the S&P and NASDAQ index. CLICK HERE
- European equities ended the session with gains. The German DAX closed the week near record levels
- U.S. Treasury yields are ending higher. The 10 year is trading at the highest level since midyear 2014. Today the 2017 high at 2.63% was surpassed. The 10 year yield is at 2.659%, up 3.3 basis points. The two-year is at 2.062%, up 1.9 basis points. The 30 year is at 2.9307%, up 2.7 basis points. CLICK HERE for Adam's thoughts on the US debt market.
Potential government shutdown? Who cares. The threat of a government shut down did not really phase the market today.
- The dollar is ending the session with gains against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY.
- The stocks closed at record levels for the S&P and the Nasdaq (and closed at the highs on the close).
- There was no flight into the safety of the US debt instruments. The 10 year yield is going out at the highest level since mid 2014.
- There is no flight into the safety of the CHF today. It is ending down against all the major currencies with the exception of the CAD.
I guess the market has played this game before. There have even been temporary shutdowns before. Eventually, things get figured out, people get paid. What we know is this will not be the last. The solution proposed today, is only for a month (to Feb 16th). So the market reaction is saying that it is getting comfortable with all the politicking that goes own. Life will go on.
Economically, today Canada manufacturing sales rose by a greater than expected 3.4% (vs 2.0% expected). Did it help the CAD? Not really. The market held support against the 100 hour MA at 1.24357, and that gave the buyers (sellers of the CAD), the go ahead to send the pair higher. The CAD is ending the day as the weakest currency of the day.
In the US today the only release was the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment. It disappointed with a reading of 94.4 versus 97.0 expectations. Did it hurt the greenback? Not really. The USD is the 2nd strongest currency of the day.
From the Fed today, Fed's Quarles kept his talk about bank regulations, but Fed's Williams (a voting member in 2018) was more upbeat but still expects the base case is for three tighenings in 2018.
Bitcoin traded up and down. The bullish news for the digital currency is it could not close below its 100 day MA this week. The not so good news (bearish) is that it could not close above the 100 hour MA. For an analysis of the important levels to eye for bitcoin, CLICK HERE.
The EURUSD for the week traded up and down, with a ceiling developing near 1.2300 and a floor at the 1.2166 area. Recall the 1.2166 is the 50% of the range since the 2014 high. That level held this week at the lows and will remain a key level in the new week. The pair is closing below the 100 hour MA at 1.2239. That is the closest "bullish above/bearish below" line in the sand into the new trading week.
The USDJPY is closing right on its 100 hour MA at 110.82. The 200 hour MA at 111.13 (and moving lower) has not been broken since January 10th.
The GBPUSD now has a double top at 1.3941-444 area, but needs to get below the 100 hour MA at 1.3830 to attract more sellers.
The AUDUSD remains in a bullish channel. For a look at the technicals that are defining support and resistance, CLICK HERE.
That'll do it. Wishing all a happy and healthy weekend.