Forex news for New York trading on June 2, 2017:
- May 2017 nonfarm payrolls 138K vs 182K expected
- JPMorgan: We're starting to re-think Q2 rebound
- Goldman Sachs: The Fed won't hike again in September
- Fed's Harker: Inflation still on track despite recent softness
- Fed's Kaplan: Biggest risk to US economy is fiscal uncertainty
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 733 vs 722 prior
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 forecast cut to 3.4% from 4.0%
- South Africa affirmed by S&P, outlook remains negative
- New York Fed GDP nowcast unchanged at 2.2% for Q2, lower for Q3
- May ISM New York business conditions 46.7 vs 55.8 prior
- Canada labor productivity QoQ 1.4% vs 1.2% estimate
- Canada Int'l Merchandise Trade -0.37B vs. -0.02B
- Gold up $12 to $1278
- WTI crude down 62-cents to $47.75
- S&P 500 up 10 points to record 2439
- US 10-year yields down 6.5 bps to 2.15%
- NZD leads, USD lags
There was one big move in US trading and it came off the non-farm payrolls report. Readings on jobs and wages were weak, along with downward revisions to the prior. The unemployment rate fell but it was entirely to falling participation.
The market was quick to react and EUR/USD jumped 40 pips immediately and another 30 pips shortly afterwards. The high of 1.1280 held for hours and set off a range traded down to 1.1255 and we chopped there until a bump higher at the end of the day. It's a 7-month high for the euro.
USD/JPY slumped 50 pips on the headlines down to 110.90 and then bled another 50 pips lower over the remainder of European trading to hit a low of 110.30. That pair is also lined up to finish very close to the worst levels of the day.
In cable it was more of a back-and-forth trade. The jobs report sent the pair up 50 pips to 1.2910 but that was the best level of the day and the NFP move almost entirely retraced in the following hour. From there a second push to test the high got underway. The problem for cable bulls is that they don't want to risk getting caught out long with weekend poll risk looming.
USD/CAD was also caught in a bind. Oil was especially weak early as WTI touched below $47.00 and that kept USD/CAD near 1.3520 despite broad USD weakness. As oil recovered, the pair began a long slide down to 1.3480 before bouncing 10 pips to close out the day.
The Australian dollar trade was more straightforward as it climbed to 0.7440 from 0.7390 on the jobs report. The first move was 30 pips and then it slowly added the rest without any significant hiccups.
Have a great weekend.