Forex news for North American trading on November 20, 2018

A snapshot of other markets near the day close shows:

  • Spot gold down $-2.61 or -0.21% at $1221.53
  • WTI crude oil futures got hammered on bearish comments from Trump and a sharply higher USD. It is trading -$3.80 or -6.64% at $53.40. The low extended to $52.77. The high reached $57.44. The private crude oil data released near the close of the day showed a draw of -1545K when they were expecting a build. Will it set a bottom for the price of crude?
  • Bitcoin is down close to -$500 at $4280. The low reached $4035 - just above the $4000 level in the rout lower. It was just yesterday that the price broke below $5000.

The stock markets continued to get hit in Europe and North America today. The Dow was the big loser, falling -2.21%. The S&P index fell -1.82%. Each of those indices are now negative on the year. The Nasdaq which closed within 6 points of the 2017 closing level, fell -1.70%. In Europe, Italy's FTSE MIB fell -1.87% and the German Dax fell -1.58%. In the UK, Brexit headlines continue to stream across the newswires. The UK FTSE fell -0.76%.

Below is the snapshot of the closing % changes and ranges for the major European ans US indices.

In the US debt market, yields changes are ending mixed with a flatter curve. The 2 year yield moved higher by 1.4 bps. The 10 year was unchanged. The 30 year is down -0.5 bps near the close. The yields were lower earlier in the session with the 2 year reaching 2.78% vs the end of day level of 2.803%. The 30 year reached 3.288% at the low. It is 3.316% currently. The market is starting to anticipate a kinder, softer Fed (with regard to hikes). However, the yields are not exactly tumbling lower.

The benchmark 10 year yields in Europe were mixed with the German yield down -2.3 bps and the Italian yield up 2.0 bps. That moved the spread to nearly 327 basis points. Budget concerns has investors still scared about investing in Italy. A rising yield spread will just make it worse. The EURUSD was pressured in the London morning session on those fears.

In the forex market, during the NA session, traders spent the session buying the greenback despite the pressure in the stock market. The biggest "whipping boys" were the AUD, CAD, EUR and NZD. The AUD, CAD and NZD were pushed lower on the sharp declines in commodities (oil fell over 7% at one point and the price of gold was also lower on the day) and risk off flows.

As mentioned above the EURUSD was pressured in the early London session on Italy fears. That momentum was continued in the US session. Technically, the price fell below the 100 hour MA at 1.1379 level and that level will be eyed for bias clues in the new trading day. The pair is trading at 1.1369 near the day's end. ON the downside for the pair, the 200 hour MA comes in at 1.1340. If the bearish sentiment continues, that level will be targeted by sellers.

In other pairs, the GBPUSD traded in a confined 62 pip trading range into the NY session. However, when a trend line on the hourly chart was broken at 1.2828, the downside momentum resumed and the price fell to an intraday low of 1.2775. In the new day the falling 100 hour MA remains above at 1.2844. It will take a move above to take some of the bearishness out of the pair.

The USDCAD was bid for most of the session as crude oil fell and fell some more and fell even more. The price rise traded to the highest level since June 28th - taking out and closing above the July high in the process at 1.3288. The next target for the pair comes in at the 1.33851 high for 2018 from June 27th.