Forex news for NY trading on November 20, 2019.
- Markets misguided by this week's RBA Minutes - Citi
- Crude oil futures settle at $57.11
- How Trump has trapped himself in China talks
- FOMC minutes: Most officials saw rates as well-calibrated
- White House: "Negotiations are continuing and progress is being made on the text of the phase-one agreement"
- ECB's Lane says to decide scope and timing of policy review 'fairly soon'
- SNB's Maechler: Swiss short-term growth outlook has worsened
- US-China trade deal may not be completed this year - report
- Pres. Trump: US continues to talk to China. They want to make a deal.
- Major European indices ending the session lower
- Crude oil inventories build of 1379K vs 1500K estimate
- Fed's Brainard: Trade uncertainty has been a major theme in economy in past year
- FOMC Minutes on Wed may appear stale from balance of risks assessment - Barclays
- What to expect from the Fed Minutes
- EU ambassador to testify that Trump ordered quid pro quo through Giuliani
- Canada October CPI +1.9% vs +1.9% y/y expected
- The JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as NA traders enter
In other markets:
- Spot gold trading down $0.90 or -0.06% at $1471.55
- Crude oil futures is trading up $1.90 or 3.44% $57.11. The catalyst for the sharp rise was the weekly inventory data which showed a build that was less than the estimate and much less than the private API data
There was no economic data out the US today (with the exeption of the oil inventory data). However, the meeting minutes from the FOMC were released in the NY afternoon. The highlights were no surprise given the Fedspeak from Fed Chair (and others) since the last meeting.
- Most judged level now appropriate barring a 'material' reassessment of the outlook
- 'A couple' said Fed should reinforce statement with communications that another rate cut unlikely without signs of a 'significant slowdown'
- Many said rate cut warranted due to global weakness and trade uncertainty
- Some favored keeping rates steady and argued outlook was favorable and inflation expected to rise
- A couple supported rate cut but said it was a close call
- Several concerned some banks had reduced capital buffers when the should be rising
- Discussed that risks to the economic outlook remained tilted to the downside
We know a "couple" FOMC members dissented from the rate cut last month. They were likely owners of the "significant slowdown" comment and the "keeping rates steady" (the dissenters were Fed's Rosengren and Esther George). Most of the other comments could be pinned to most everyone else. We have heard from many, that the economy and policy is at a "good place" (or appropriate) with "global and trade" still a concern.
What did move the markets the most today was a Reuters headline that the US-China trade deal may not be completed this year as negotiations were more complicated, that there was internal conflict within the White House about the best approach to China, and finally that Trump could veto a deal at the last-minute if he deemed it not a "win".
That news item sent stocks screaming lower. Well maybe it wasn't screaming but the Dow did fall by about 250 points and the Nasdaq fell by about 100.
However, as is so often the case, the fall found dip buyers, and the major indices recovered more than half of their declines. Although there was no records today, it wasn't so bad.
Below are the ranges of the high, low and close for the North American and European markets today.
In the forex market, the USD was the strongest of the major. The AUD was the weakest although there was a lot of ups and downs.
