Forexlive Americas FX new wrap: Dollar moves up on some better data today
Forex news for NY trading on November 22, 2019
- The major indices end the week with modest gains. Dow and S&P broke 3 day slides
- The JPY was the strongest this week and the CHF was the weakest
- CFTC commitment of traders: EUR shorts increase in the current week. Largest speculative position.
- US Pres. Trump: An announcement will come "very soon" on Hong Kong Bill
- WTI Crude oil futures settle at $57.77
- Corbyn: He'd be neutral in 2nd Brexit referendum (if there were one)
- More of the backstory from John Bolton
- "Old" news but good news. New York Fed GDPNowcast estimate for 4Q growth up on the week
- Baker Hughes oil rigs down -3 at 671 vs 669 estimate
- Ray Dalio debunks WSJ story about his bearish position
- European indices mostly higher to end the week
- KC Fed manufacturing index -3 vs -2 expected
- US U Mich November final consumer sentiment index 96.8 vs 95.7 expected
- US November prelim Markit services PMI 51.6 vs 51.0 expected
- Trump says deal with China 'potentially very close'
- Canada September retail sales -0.1% vs -0.3% expected
- The NZD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as NA trader enter
- Bridgewater makes a $1.5 billion bet against the stock market
In other markets , the snapshot near the close of the day showing:
- Spot gold, $-2.34 or -0.16% at $1462
- WTI crude oil futures $-0.58 or -0.99% at $58.00
- Bitcoin on Coinbase fell to a session low $6775.47, but has rebounded up to $7300. That is still down about $295 on the day but it could've been a lot worse
The USD moved higher today with most of the gains vs the EUR, GBP and the CHF. The currency was only lower vs the NZD on the day. Overall, the NZD was the strongest while the GBP, CHF and EUR were the weakest.
The fundamental catalyst for the moves were better-than-expected Markit PMI data and better Michigan consumer sentiment. Also helping were technical moves, especially in the GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDCHF.
For the GBPUSD, the pair had an initial catalyst (ahead of the stronger US data) from better PMI data. That helped to push the pair below the 200 hour moving average at 1.28963. That data the price down toward a support area around the 1.2866 level where it consolidated into the NY session. NY traders took the pair even lower with the pair initially stalling at the 61.8% retracement at 1.28508. When that was broken, the selling took the price even lower to the next targets at the 1.2821-24 where buyers entered to slow the decline. The last 5 or 6 hours corrected marginally to the 1.2840 level. For the week, the pair is lower (closed at 1.2900 last Friday), but moved higher to 1.2984 on Monday and other high on Thursday at 1.2969, before moving lower yesterday and today.
The EURUSD came in the day with a 51 pip trading range for the week. If that remain the range, it would be the most narrow trading range since at least 2002. Coming into the New York session the range was still 51 pips. However the economic data helped to push the price below the low for the week at 1.1046 and the pair did not really slow until reaching the November 15 low at 1.10145. So instead of the 51 pip trading range, the range for the week is ending at around 83 pips. Although still narrow by historical standards it certainly sounds better overall. The technical catalyst for the move was the break below the 200 hour moving average at 1.1046 (that also happened to be the week's low coming into today). Fallen below the 61.8% retracement at 1.10298, also helped to push the pair to the downside
The USDCHF, traded mostly higher in the European session up to the 200 day moving average at 0.99463. The correction off that level was modest and the pair kept banging against the topside moving average, until that time it broke through. The high price reached 0.9980 which was just above the previous November high of 0.9978. That was good enough to stalled the rise. The price is currently trading at 0.9968 near the close for the week. And next week's trading staying above the 200 day moving average will keep the bulls in charge. On the topside getting above the 0.9978 – 80 level will be the closest target.
In other pairs:
- The USDCAD fell after the retail sales were better than expectations. However, dip buyers came in against the 200 hour moving average (currently at 1.3255) and when the price move back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3274, tthe Friday squeeze to the upside was on. The move did not stop until just below the 1.3300 level, where natural sellers entered.
- The NZDUSD spent the last 8 hour in the NY session trading between the 100 hour MA above at 0.64114 adn the 200 hour MA below at 0.6399. The pair is settling in between at 64059.
For the US stock market today, the major indices are closed higher with the Dow leading the way. European shares were also higher with the UK FTSE 100 leading the way with a gain of 1.22%.
For the week, the story was different with the UK FTSE 100 the only major indices closing with a positive gain. The Portugal PSI20 and the Italian FTSE MIB were the weakest of the major stock indices this week.