Forex news for NY trading on April 23, 2018

In other markets today:

  • Spot gold $-11.56 or -0.87% at $1324
  • WTI crude oil futures rose $.51 or 0.75% to $68.91. The price was lower earlier in the session but rose to three-year highs as the Saudi-Yemen conflict heats up. Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen launched an unsuccessful missile attack against Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile a Saudi kingdom "led force killed a senior leader of the rebel group" according to Bloomberg
  • The US stocks ending the session with modest changes. The S&P index closed near unchanged. The NASDAQ fell -0.25%. The Dow fell -0.06%.
  • In the US debt markets yields were a bit higher (but off the high yields of the day). 2 year 2.474%, +1.7 basis points. Five-year 2.820%, +2.0 basis points. 10 year 2.975%, +1.5 basis points. 30 year 3.143%, -0.2 basis points

In the NY session today, the Chicago Fed national activity index came in bit weaker than expected at 0.10 versus 0.27 expected. That was offset by better-than-expected market services PMI (54.4 versus 54.1 expected). Existing home sales were also higher than consensus estimates. The annualized rate moved to 5.6 million versus 5.55 million expected.

The dollar was already the strongest of the major currencies at the start of the NY session with gains of

  • 0.48% vs the JPY
  • 0.42% vs the EUR and
  • 0.29% vs the GBP.

At the close, the greenback was higher by

  • 0.98 vs the JPY,
  • 0.66% against the EUR and
  • 0.42% vs the GBP

It was a strong day for the dollar bulls.

In addition to some better data, perhaps helping the cause was some short covering in the USD. As Adam reported late Friday, the weekly commitment of traders showed that the EUR longs hit a record (dollar shorts). The EURUSD has been trending to the downside over the last 5 trading days and hit the lowest level since March 1 today. The GBP has also been long. That too has been a trend like move to the downside over the last 5 trading days.

Technicals were also in play:

The EURUSD moved below a swing area at 1.2248-601 and continued to step down to the key 100 day MAa at 1.22048. The pair is closing right near that level, and it should be a barometer for the buyers and sellers in the new trading day.

The USDJPY traded to the highest level since February 13th on the break of the 107.895 today. The move above opened the door for more buying. Helping was perhaps BOJs Kurodas comment saying "I don't know why the Japanese Yen is seen as a safe currency". I am with you Mr. Kuroda. Technically, the pair also moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the November high at 108.469. The 100 day MA at 108.969 will be eyed in the new trading day.

The GBPUSD continued its fall lower (5 days in a row down). The price stayed below a broken lower trend line at 1.40205 level. The pair chased a lower trend line on the hourly chart at 1.3909 currently. Close resistance comes in at 1.3965-81 now.

The USDCAD traded above the 50% of the move down from the March high and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2819-26 without much trouble. The high reached 1.2857 (trades at 1.2841 at the end of day). Stay above the 1.2819-26 is more bullish.

At the Sohn conference in NYC some trades included:

  • DR Horton
  • Long oil ETF (XOP)/ short Facebook (Gundlach).
  • Long Box.
  • CVS. Larry Robbins and
  • Bitcoin is going to $90K (from below $9K now. Why not? Bitcoin ended the day -$17 at $8873. The 100 day MA is above at $9216. The 200 day MA is at $9818. Get above those MAs and the drive toward $90K can start (or at least look a little more bullish).