Forex news for NY trading on April 23, 2018
- John Pfeffer at Sohn: Bitcoin could reach $90K (or significantly higher)
- More from BoC Gov Poloz: Stats on job vacancies a symptom of strong labour market
- US stocks end the session lower but a late day bounce cuts some of the losses
- Headlines from Q&A of BOC Gov. Poloz and Sen. Deputy Gov. Wilkins
- BOC Poloz: Inflation is on target. BOC will remain cautious on rates.
- Gundlach on CNBC: 10 year above 3% will lead to higher rates
- Audio recap: US dollar building momentum
- Van hits a dozen pedestrians in Toronto in possible terrorist attack
- GBPUSD makes new lows for the day. Lower trend line target chased.
- USDCAD moves above 200 bar MA on 4-hour, and 50% retracement. Can't be ignored.
- Gundlach: Buy oil and gas producers, sell Facebook
- Theresa May continues to be battered by House of Lords
- Earnings this week will be a big thing
- It's Ira Sohn day. Here is the schedule and a recap of the past 3 years of recommendations
- NZDUSD tests 2018 low... Below 200 day MA and 38.2% retracement
- European equity close: Solid start to the week
- USD/JPY continues explosion higher above 108.50
- EURJPY moves above 200 and 100 hour MA. Can it stay above?
- BOJ's Kuroda: Excessive rate hikes are a risk to global economy
- No comments on monetary policy from the ECB's Coeure
- US March existing home sales 5.60m vs 5.55m expected
- US Markit services PMI 54.4 vs 54.1 expected
- US 10-year yields edge closer to 3%
- BOJ's Kuroda: I don't understand why Japanese yen is seen as a safe haven
- European leaders warn Trump not to pull out of Iran nuclear deal
- Chicago Fed national activity index +0.10 vs +0.27 expected
- Canada February wholesale sales -0.8% vs +0.8% expected
- The USD is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest as the week kicks off in NA.
In other markets today:
- Spot gold $-11.56 or -0.87% at $1324
- WTI crude oil futures rose $.51 or 0.75% to $68.91. The price was lower earlier in the session but rose to three-year highs as the Saudi-Yemen conflict heats up. Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen launched an unsuccessful missile attack against Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile a Saudi kingdom "led force killed a senior leader of the rebel group" according to Bloomberg
- The US stocks ending the session with modest changes. The S&P index closed near unchanged. The NASDAQ fell -0.25%. The Dow fell -0.06%.
- In the US debt markets yields were a bit higher (but off the high yields of the day). 2 year 2.474%, +1.7 basis points. Five-year 2.820%, +2.0 basis points. 10 year 2.975%, +1.5 basis points. 30 year 3.143%, -0.2 basis points
In the NY session today, the Chicago Fed national activity index came in bit weaker than expected at 0.10 versus 0.27 expected. That was offset by better-than-expected market services PMI (54.4 versus 54.1 expected). Existing home sales were also higher than consensus estimates. The annualized rate moved to 5.6 million versus 5.55 million expected.
The dollar was already the strongest of the major currencies at the start of the NY session with gains of
- 0.48% vs the JPY
- 0.42% vs the EUR and
- 0.29% vs the GBP.
At the close, the greenback was higher by
- 0.98 vs the JPY,
- 0.66% against the EUR and
- 0.42% vs the GBP
It was a strong day for the dollar bulls.
In addition to some better data, perhaps helping the cause was some short covering in the USD. As Adam reported late Friday, the weekly commitment of traders showed that the EUR longs hit a record (dollar shorts). The EURUSD has been trending to the downside over the last 5 trading days and hit the lowest level since March 1 today. The GBP has also been long. That too has been a trend like move to the downside over the last 5 trading days.
Technicals were also in play:
The EURUSD moved below a swing area at 1.2248-601 and continued to step down to the key 100 day MAa at 1.22048. The pair is closing right near that level, and it should be a barometer for the buyers and sellers in the new trading day.
The USDJPY traded to the highest level since February 13th on the break of the 107.895 today. The move above opened the door for more buying. Helping was perhaps BOJs Kurodas comment saying "I don't know why the Japanese Yen is seen as a safe currency". I am with you Mr. Kuroda. Technically, the pair also moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the November high at 108.469. The 100 day MA at 108.969 will be eyed in the new trading day.
The GBPUSD continued its fall lower (5 days in a row down). The price stayed below a broken lower trend line at 1.40205 level. The pair chased a lower trend line on the hourly chart at 1.3909 currently. Close resistance comes in at 1.3965-81 now.
The USDCAD traded above the 50% of the move down from the March high and the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.2819-26 without much trouble. The high reached 1.2857 (trades at 1.2841 at the end of day). Stay above the 1.2819-26 is more bullish.
At the Sohn conference in NYC some trades included:
- DR Horton
- Long oil ETF (XOP)/ short Facebook (Gundlach).
- Long Box.
- CVS. Larry Robbins and
- Bitcoin is going to $90K (from below $9K now. Why not? Bitcoin ended the day -$17 at $8873. The 100 day MA is above at $9216. The 200 day MA is at $9818. Get above those MAs and the drive toward $90K can start (or at least look a little more bullish).