Forex news for NY trading on July 23, 2019
- The New Zealand dollar sinks most among G10 currencies
- WTI crude oil settles at $56.77
- Three charts show how disappointing the US housing market has been this year
- US trade negotiators headed to Shanghai on Monday for talks
- Britain approaches European on safe-shipping mission for Strait of Hormuz
- US auctions off $40B of 2 year notes at 1.825%
- European shares end the session with solid gains
- DUP confirms that coalition agreement with Conservatives still stands
- US June existing home sales 5.27m vs 5.32m expected
- Eurozone July advance consumer confidence -6.6 vs -7.2 expected
- Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July -12 vs 5 estimate
- Non trend transitions to trend. Has the EURUSD non-trended long enough?
- The FHFA house price index for May 0.1% vs 0.4% estimate
- IMF lowers global growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.3%
- Global Times editor: China has started buying US farm products
- Philly Fed July non-manufacturing index 21.4 vs 8.2 prior
- The USD is the strongest. The NZD is the weakest as NA traders enter.
A snapshot of the other markets are showing:
- Spot gold is taking it's clue from the higher dollar and moving lower. The precious metal is down -$7.50 or -0.52% at $1417.30.. The high reached $1430.90. The low extended to $1414.26.
- WTI crude oil futures are up $0.85 or 1.51% at $57.07. The private inventory data is showing a much larger than expected draw of 10M barrels. The estimate was for about a 4M draw.
The dollar was king today, taking the top spot as the strongest currency of the majors. The NY session started with that distinction, and the session did not stop the trend. The pair was the strongest vs. the NZD (which was the weakest of the majors - USD up 0.81%), and also had solid gains vs the EUR and AUD as well (up 0.54% and 0.43%). Below is a snapshot of the % changes of the major currencies vs each other and the rankings of the strongest to weakest.
Despite the rise in the data, the data in the session was not all the inspiring.
- The FHFA house price index rose but by less than expectations at 0.1% vs 0.4% estimare.
- The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for July fell sharply to -12 from -5 estimate. That ran in contrast to other regional indices like Empire manufacturing and Philly Fed Business activity index which were both better than expected in July.
- June existing home sales were also weaker than expectations at 5.27M units vs estimate of 5.32M. With lower rates, you might be expecting more of a pickup from the housing market.
What did give the dollar a boost, was that the US trade negotiators were heading to Shanghai on Monday for face-to-face meetings with Chinese counterparts. That gave stocks a boost, and helped to send yields higher in addition to the boost in the greeenback.
The S&P index is closing the day above the 3000 level and at the session highs (up 0.68%). THe Nasdaq index rose 0.58% and also closed at/near session highs. The Dow was up 0.65%, and close to the session highs. European shares also closed with oversized gains with German Dax leading the charge at up 1.64%.
That is the good news.... In after hours, the big tech companies are coming under pressure from an article in the Wall Street Journal saying that the "Department of Justice is to open broad antitrust review of big tech companies". Amazon, shares are down -1%, Facebook is down -1.29%. Apple is down -0.5% and Alphabet is down -1.14% in after hours trading.
In other news today, Boris Johnson was declared the official winner as the new British Prime Minister. So begins the arduous task of reaching a deal with the EU and British lawmakers. The lawmakers have rejected deals proposed by outgoing PM May three times.
For their part, the European Commissions 1st VP Frans Timmermans said "I think the position of the EU is also clear: the United Kingdom reached an agreement with the European Union and the European Union will stick with that agreement. We will hear what the new prime minister has to say when he comes to Brussels."
The GBPUSD had a brief rally on the news of victory, peaking right against its 100 hour MA (currently at 1.24814), but felll back down and is ending the session at 1.24375.
The EURUSD today trended lower and had a more respectable day after its 19 pip non-trending day yesterday (apparently the 3rd most narrow day on record). Today the range was 63 pips with the price trending lower and closing at 1.1150. The pair traded at the lowest level since May 31st.
Speaking of non trending, the year's trading range for the EURUSD in 2019 is also very narrow at 463 pips (the average for the year is abouut 1450 pips). Is it time to think about a move in the EURUSD? I talk about the dynamic of non-trend transitioning to trending in my latest video. Please take a look.
Good fortune with your trading.
