Forex news for New York trade on November 24, 2020:
- Dow reaches a record high. 30K the next stop.
- US November consumer confidence 96.1 vs 97.9 expected
- Nov Richmond Fed 15 vs 20 expected
- US Sept Case-Shiller 20-city home price index +6.57% y/y vs +5.3% expected
- US FHFA Sept house price index +1.7% vs +0.8% m/m expected
- Fed's Williams: Fed has taken an approach that will adjust naturally
- RBNZ: Unemployment lower than expected to date
- Macron: The second covid wave is over. Shops to reopen
- Feds Bullard: Sees no need to change bond purchases right now
- Bullard doesn't comment on monetary policy or economic outlook
- Belgian Nov business sentiment -12.1 vs -8.5 prior
- ECB's Schabel: Vaccine news shows light at the end of the tunnel
- BOE's Haskel: We still have plenty that we can do in terms of policy firepower
Markets:
- Gold down $32 to $1806
- US 10-year yield up 2.6 bps to 0.88%
- WTI crude oil up $1.85 to $44.95 -- highest since March
- S&P 500 up 57 points to 3634
- AUD leads, JPY and USD lag
The risk rally took another leg higher on Tuesday. The supposed trigger was the US starting the transition to Biden but that's fitting the price move to the narrative in my estimation.
Data was on the softer side in general in the US and the expectations component of consumer confidence was particularly weak but the market hardly noticed. It's all about post-pandemic optimism at the moment and it's a rolling trade.
Energy continued to be a big story with crude up another 4% on the day. Bonds struggled again with a long-end led bear steepener. That helped to keep a bid in USD/JPY but it was modest and sagged late as the US dollar softened.
USD/CAD rode the oil trade lower after a blip higher in Europe but AUD and NZD have yet to climb above the European highs.
Sterling didn't have many Brexit headlines to digest so it was mostly about the USD trade. Still, cable clocked another win with the help of some strong buying into the London fix.
The euro perked up later in the day and France scaling back the lockdown is surely a sign of more to come in Europe, where it looks like they might have a merry Christmas after all.
The other big move came in gold as it plunged for the second day. The big band of support at $1800 and the 200-dma held the line so far and there was some modest buying late.
