Forex news for North American trade on November 24, 2021:
- Fed's Daly makes a huge shift says she sees the case for speeding up the taper
- US October PCE core inflation 4.1% vs +4.1% expected
- US October durable goods orders -0.5% vs +0.2% expected
- US Q3 GDP second reading +2.1% vs +2.2% expected
- US October advance goods trade balance -$82.89B versus -$98.2B prior
- US initial jobless claims 199K vs 260K estimate -- lowest in 52 years
- US October new home sales 745K vs 800K expected
- UMich November US consumer sentiment final 67.4 vs 66.9 expected
- RBNZ's Orr: There are capacity pressures everywhere in the country
- FOMC minutes: Members agreed it would be appropriate to convey less certainty about the path of inflation
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 467 vs 461 prior
- Dallas Fed October trimmed mean PCE one-month annualized 4.2% vs 4.9%
- ECB's Schnabel: inflation will start to normalize from January onwards
- ECB's Weidmann says German growth likely to be much slower than June forecasts
- OPEC not discussing pausing oil output increases - report
- EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +1017K vs -481K expected
- Belgian Nov business sentiment +4.2 vs +4.0 prior
- US October wholesale inventories +2.2% vs +1.4% prior
Markets:
- S&P 500 up 10 points to 4701
- US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 1.637%
- Gold down $1 to $1788
- WTI crude oil down 23-cents to $78.27
- CAD leads, NZD lags
There was a ton of economic data as the US rushed out releases ahead of a four-day weekend and there were some major highlights. The consumer spending side of the PCE report was strong and jobless claims hit a 52-year low. Plenty of people blamed seasonal adjustments for the latter but few would argue against the idea of a strong jobs market. Despite all that, what I'll remember from today is the pivot from Daly.
Just one week ago, she said "I have a strong bias to stick to current taper pace" and now she's basically advocating for a quicker taper. It's one of the most out-of-left field moves in awhile, especially since there was no meaningful data in the interim.
The Fed blackout starts next Saturday and that leaves little time for top officials to flag a similar shift but I'll be on guard for it now -- along with the USD strength that it should bring.
Some of that crept in today but I'd argue that's just a taste. The euro and pound both carved out new lows while USD/JPY consolidated above the key 115.00 level.
The kiwi continued to struggle after the RBNZ decision and the Australian dollar wasn't far behind. The only currency to keep pace with the US dollar was the loonie and that was despite a small dip in oil prices.
Happy Thanksgiving to all our American readers.
