Forex news for North American trading on February 25, 2019:
- Cable touches 1.3100 after Corbyn supports 'public vote' on Brexit
- Fed's Kaplan: Inflation is not running away from us
- Mexico Acevedo: Mexico is proposing a 15% tariff on steel, 24-30% on textiles
- Fed's Clarida: Labor participation rates been going up recently
- February Dallas Fed manufacturing index +13.1 vs +4.9 expected
- US December wholesale inventories +1.1% vs +0.3% expected
- Warren Buffett: Bitcoin is a delusion
- The rumors were true: Ripple to start trading on Coinbase tomorrow
- January Chicago Fed national activity index -0.43 vs +0.15 expected
Markets:
- Gold flat at $1328
- WTI crude down $1.88 to $55.38
- AUD leads, CAD lags
- US 10-year yields up 2 bps to 2.67%
- S&P 500 up 3 points to 2796
It was the kind of day that left no one satisfied. The huge rally in Chinese stock markets didn't lead to much headway in US markets. The S&P 500 rallied 20 point early but the gains faded. USD/JPY was a bit slower to warm up as offers at Friday's high of 110.91 capped the early gains but once that gave way it was a run on buy stops up to 11.24 at the highs. However some jitters hit late and dragged it back to 111.05.
The story later in the day was Brexit as Labour decided to support an amendment on a second referendum in a major shift for the opposition party. It's a shakeup in the landscape that may push some of the hard-line Brexit supporters in the Conservative party to look for a deal rather than risk a second vote. The pound rose first then fell back down to where it was beforehand then rallied to a high of 1.3114. Still, it was only up 50 pips at the high. Importantly, it crested above last week's high of 1.3109 which clears the way to the Jan high of 1.3218.
USD/CAD bucked the trend of strength in commodity currencies after Trump attacked OPEC and called for lower prices in a tweet.
Crude and CAD were slow to react at first but oil eventually fell more than 3%. You could argue it was due for a retracement after a non-stop run since year-end and this was simply a tipping point. USD/CAD was also nearing the bottom of its recent range.
AUD/USD was especially flat as it chopped in the 0.7165 to 0.7185 as it was stuck in the push and pull of China hopes and middling markets elsewhere.
I hate to leave EUR/USD to the end because it's in an interesting spot. It slumped to 1.1336 in US trade on a round of dollar strength but it battled back late and rose to just shy of the European high of 1.1369. If it can get through, last week's high of 1.1371 is right there for the taking. Zooming out, that would likely to coincide with dollar breakdowns elsewhere including AUD and GBP.
