Forexlive America's FX news wrap: S&P index trades up to all time high (almost... so close) but stalls
Forex news for NY trading on October 25, 2019.
- US stocks recover from earlier losses and close higher. S&P index closes just below record levels
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Shorts in GBP and EUR see some squeeze
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $56.66
- Major economic releases and events for next week's trading
- White House advisor Navarro is fighting phase one deal -- wants tougher IP language
- US 2019 FY deficit was $984B compared to $779B a year ago
- Major earnings releases next week. Alphabet, Apple, Facebook, AMD highlights
- It's tough to find a reason for the Bitcoin jump, but this didn't hurt
- US Baker Hughes total rig count 830 versus 850 estimate
- Bitcoin spikes higher...
- European equity close: UK lags as Spain leads the way
- The NY Fed Nowcast estimate for Q3 growth stands at 1.9%
- Navarro: US-China talk earlier today was 'excellent'
- USTR says China and US close to finalizing some sections of trade deal
- ECB's Villeroy: Prolonged uncertainty requires accommodative mon pol
- US October final UMich consumer sentiment 95.5 vs 96.0 expected
- France considers that a Brexit extension 'is not a given' - report
- The AUD is the strongest of the majors and the NZD is the weakest today
- Johnson: If Labour opposes election, we will not engage in pointless "Brexitology" in parliament
In other markets as the trading we comes to close is showing:
- Spot gold, up $0.72 or 0.05% at $1504.70. The price of gold was as high as $1518.28. However, talk of progress in the US China trade talks, helped to push the price back lower. The low for the day reached $1500.15
- WTI crude oil futures is closing the week at $56.61. That is up $0.38 or 0.68%. For the week WTI crude oil rose by over 5%. Inventory data showed a surprise drawdown midweek that helped to push the price above its 100 day moving average where it stayed for the rest of the week.
- Bitcoin on Coinbase caught a bid and moved up by over $1100 on the Coinbase exchange. Rumblings that China was exploring blockchain and some technical breaks to the upside, helped to push the price higher. The hi for the day reached $8800. That was just short of the $8886.40 200 day moving average. A move above that level over the weekend would be more bullish for the digital currency
In the US stock market, the S&P index closes just shy of record levels at 3025.68. The price closed at 3022.55 but did trade intraday above that record close level. It did, however, fall just short of the all time intraday high at 3027.98. The high price reached 3027.39. The NASDAQ composite index was the biggest gainer amongst the major global indices today. The UK FTSE 100 was the only index in the red today as the Brexit October 31 date approaches next week, and there is still uncertainty as to what exactly might transpire.
Although lower for the day, the UK FTSE 100 led the charge for the week, rising by 2.43%. The best gainer in the US was the NASDAQ index which rose by 1.9% (see the rank of the major indices below).
In the forex market today, the CAD road the trend for the week and ended as the strongest on the day. The AUD and the USD also moved higher. The biggest the choir was the NZD for the day.
On the week, the CAD was also the strongest with gains against all the major currencies. The GBP was the weakest after the UK approved the Boris Johnson Brexit deal but voted down his quick timetable to sign it into law. That did not sit well with cable buyers and the price rotated lower ahead of next weeks key decisions.
Technically speaking today (and for this week too),
- The EURUSD it is closing near the lows for the week, and in the process is just below a broken trend line on the hourly chart at the 1.1081 level. Today, the price high stalled ahead of its key 100 day moving average at 1.11264. For the week, the price trade above and below that moving average. Closing below however, is more bearish into the new trading week
- The GBPUSD reach as high a Monday at the 1.30116 level. The low for the week reach 1.2787 on Thursday. In trading today, the highs stalled near the pairs 200 hour moving average. That moving average comes in at 1.2869. The 100 hour moving averages at 1.2888. In the new week, stay below those 2 moving averages would give the bears the control. On the downside, the 1.2746 area looks to be the next logical support target. Moving below that level will have traders looking toward its 200 day moving average at 1.2711. That will be a key level on more selling in the new trading week.
- The USDJPY traders did extend the narrow trading range for the week, on a move above the 108.748 level. That's the good news for the bulls. The bad news for the bulls is that the high could only extend if you pips above that level to 108.769. The pair does remain above its 100 hour moving average at 108.576 and 200 hour moving average at 108.606. So there is still some hope for buyers that the price goes higher early next week. However if those levels are broken, the sellers are likely to take back control.
- USDCHF. The USDCHF reached up to new week highs in trading today (trade to the highest level since October 16), but when the price extended to the 200 day MA, sellers leaned against the level (at 0.9954 - the high reached 0.99544). The pair is trading back down at 0.9944 as the week comes into the close. Next week, if the price is going higher, breaking above that 200 day moving average would be the key barometer for traders. Failure to do that, and a rotation back lower would be more likely.
Next week is shaping up to potentially be a very volatile trading week with:
- The Brexit ups and downs
- The BOC, FOMC, BOJ rate decisions. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points
- US employment statistics on Friday
- ISM data will also be released.
On the earnings front next week:
- Bristol-Myers Squibb's
- Exxon, and
are all due to release earnings.
So there is lot of stuff that can cause market volatility.
Thank you for your support this week and always. Wishing you all a happy and healthy weekend.