Forex news for NY trading on March 26, 2018.
- Fed's Mester still sees rising rates in '18 & '19, but tariffs add uncertainty
- Big day up for stocks as buyers correct some of the sharp falls from last week.
- EURJPY moves back in a key swing area and toward 200 day MA
- Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today – two Fed speakers
- USDJPY getting a boost and trades at the day highs
- Crude oil futures settle at $65.55
- EURUSD tries to punch back above the March highs but not in the clear yet
- US treasury sells $30B of 2 year note at 2.31%
- European stocks end with declines after earlier gains evaporate
- GBPUSD moves to new session highs as London/European traders look to exit for the day
- Audio recap: No love for the US dollar
- Facebook shares fall below $150. US stock indices giving up some of the gains
- UK PM May: Beginning dedicated set of talks on northern Irish border
- WH trade advisor Navarro: Looks like we will get good deal on NAFTA
- Twitter to ban most of cryptocurrency advertisement on its platform.
- Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index for March 21.4 versus 33.5 estimate
- EURUSD pops above trend line and targets March high
- USDCHF finding dip demand yet again. Hello SNB?
- Trump orders 60 Russian diplomats expelled due to UK spy poisoning
- Feb Chicago Fed national activity index +0.88 vs +0.15 expected
- The NZD is the strongest. The JPY is the weakest as NA trader enter for the week.
End of day values include:
- Spot gold up $6.10 or 0.45% at $1353.40
- WTI crude oil futures is down $.38 or -0.59% at $65.49
- Bitcoin is down -$727 dollar at $7875 and running away from the converged 100 and 200 hour MAs at $8550 area. The price trades between those MAs above and the low from March 18th at $7310. There was a report today that Twitter was going to ban most cryptocurrency ads.
US yields recovered some of the declines from last week. This despite a pretty good 2 year note auction (5 year auction tomorrow and 7 year on Wednesday).
- 2 year, 2.268%, +1.5 basis points
- 5 year 2.638%, +3.9 basis points.
- 10 year 2.85%, +3.66 basis points. Last week the 10 year moved down toward the 2.80% level.
- 30 year 3.083%, +2.3 basis points
Today was a day where the markets took a deep breathe as
- Fears from tariffs/China/trade wars eased.
- Trump survived the 60-Minutes Stormy Daniel's interview (his marriage may not, but that is a personal issue).
- The technicals in the S&P in particular were also helpful for the overall tone. That index closed right at its 200 day MA on Friday, and the relief from the weekend fears, set that low. It is always good when an instrument bounces off a 200 day MA.
All that helped to propel the major indices to the sharpest one day gain since August 26th, 2015. The S&P rose 2.72%, the Nasdaq rose 3.26%, the Dow rose 2.84%. The "Ows" turned to "Wows" in the equity markets.
There was little in the way of economic news today:
- The Dallas Fed manufacturing activity for March fell to 21.4 vs 37.2 in February.
- The Chicago Fed national activity index was better though at 0.88 vs 0.15 expected.
Other than that and the stock markets rebound, the White House's trade advisor Navarro, appeased the market with a highlight reel of the President's accomplishments, and comforting words on China.
For the USD, the dollar started the NY session lower and ended the NY session lower. The greenback fell against all the major currencies with the exception of the JPY.
With oversized gains in the stocks today, the JPY saw trader's exit out of the "relatively safety of the JPY". All the JPY pairs soared (see the JPY % change's chart above). The NZDJPY pair rose 1.59% (JPY down -1.59%). The EURJPY rose 1.45% (see post here). The GBPJPY rose 1.36% and the AUDJPY rose 1.33%. Big flows out of the JPY and into the JPY cross pairs.
