Forex news for North American trading on April 27, 2021.
- This is probably a rare FOMC meeting where the minutes matter more than the statement
- Microsoft and Alphabet to report after the close
- Oil pops into settlement to hit a one-week high with BP upbeat on demand
- Ethereum hits an all-time high today.
- It's too soon for the Fed to taper - TD
- Gundlach: The US dollar is almost certain to decline in the medium-to-long term
- US treasury auctions off $72 billion of 7-year notes at a high yield of 1.306%
- CDC updates recommendations for people who are vaccinated
- European equity close: Mild selling led by the UK. Spain stocks rally late
- Richmond Fed manufacturing index comes in at 17 versus 22 estimate
- US April Conference Board consumer confidence 121.7 vs 113.0 expected
- OPEC+ ministers won't meet with JMMC set to recommend no production changes
- FHFA February US house price index +0.9% vs +1.0% m/m expected
- US January Case-Shiller house price index +11.9% vs +11.1% y/y prior
- Inflation is the buzzword as food and metals prices continue to rise
- The CHF is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
The economic data today showed housing upbeat with Case Shiller home prices continuing to show solid gains and February FHFA home prices also up on the month by a solid 0.9%. Consumer confidence reached the highest level since the first quarter of 2020 with a strong reading of 121.7. That was much higher than the 113.0 expectations. Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in unchanged from the previous month but lower than the estimate (17 versus 22 estimate).
The US treasury successfully auctioned off $72 billion of 7-year notes near the WI level (0.1 basis point tail) with bid t to cover higher than the six month average, and the dealer saddled with less than six-month average (indicative of strong external demand.
A look at some of the markets near the closes shows:
- Spot gold down around five dollars or -0.28% at $1776.31
- Spot silver is up $0.04 or 0.20% at $26.26
- WTI crude oil futures rose $1.31 or 2.12% at $63.22. The price is trading at the highest level since April 20 and further away from the 200 hour moving average is $62.45.
- The price of bitcoin is trading at $1671 or 3.14% of $54,925. The high price reached $55,389.
- Ethereum traded to a new record high of $2683.65
In the forex, the GBP is the strongest of the majors followed close behind by the CHF, EUR and USD. The weakest currency was a JPY with declined in the AUD and NZD as well. The USD was near unchanged versus the EUR, GBP, CHF and CAD (gains of losses of 0.04 or less on the day), while climbing verse the JPY (+0.63%), AUD (+0.41%) and NZD (+0.39%).
Looking at some of the technicals:
- USDJPY: The USDJPY had a better than average range of the 71 pips versus 58 PIP average of the last 22 days. The pair broke above and away from its 200 hour MA at 108.224 today. IT was the first close on the hourly chart above that MA since April 6. The high has reached 108.742. The next target is a 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high. That comes in at 108.804. Get above that, should solicit more upside potential with the 109.00 level, as the next target
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD stalled yesterday just ahead of its high price from last week at 0.78152 (the high reached 0.78144 today). The fall today took the price to a low of 0.7761. The current price trading and 0.77683. Technically, the pair is getting close to its rising 100 hour moving average 0.77572 and 200 hour moving average or 0.77522. Break below each would tilt the buyers more to the downside. Stay above keeps the buyers more control. With the price not too far from those moving averages, buyers and sellers will be interested in the reaction around those moving averages.
- NZDUSD; The NZDUSD DID extended above its recent cycle high from last week at 0.72293 yesterday. The high price reached 0.72427 and chopped lower. Like the AUDUSD the price is getting closer to its rising 100 hour moving average at 0.7199. The 200 hour moving average is below that of 0.7186. Move below each would tilt the buyers more to the downside. Stay above keeps the buyers in control. The the price has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since April 13.
- EURUSD: The EURUSD traded down and up and down and up today, but in a narrow trading range of only 35 pips. The move lower was halted by the 100 hour moving average and 100 day MA which at the time were converged at 1.2054. The low for the day reached 1.20563 (buyers leaned against the moving averages). On the top side, the pair stalled near the corrective high from yesterday at 1.2093. The high price reached 1.2092. Near the close, the prices trading at 1.2089. In the new day, get above 1.2093 would be more bullish.
In the stock markets in North America and Europe, the S&P and NASDAQ could not repeat the record closes from yesterday with each moving lower on the day. The NASDAQ was the biggest decline or at -0.34% of the major US indices. The S&P index turned negative at the closing bell (-0.02% on the day). The Dow industrial average close with a small gain of 0.01%.
The European stock indices all closed lower with the exception of the Spanish Ibex which had a gain of 0.63%. Below are the details of the highs and lows and percentage changes in price changes for the major North American and European stock indices.
