Forex news for North American trading on September 27, 2021
- US stocks close mixed. Nasdaq and S&P close lower. Dow up but off highs.
- Dallas Fed Pres. Kaplan to retire October 8
- Tomorrow's US session is highlighted by Fed Powell's testimony
- The speed and intensity of the energy crisis is stunning
- WTI crude oil futures settle at $75.45
- It's infrastructure week: Big week for US politics starts with 5:30 pm ET meeting
- Feds Williams: Reasonable to think that the tapering could be done by the middle of next year
- Feds Kashkari: A healthy economy is one where businesses have to work hard to find workers
- Feds Brainard: Asset values across the range of asset classes are stretched
- US sells 5-year notes at 0.990% vs 0.994% WI
- Fed's Brainard: No liftoff signal should be taken from taper announcement
- Fed's Williams: The criteria for a rate hike still a long way off
- Fed's Evans: Sees one rate hike in 2023 and a 'gentle incline' after that
- Major European indices close the day higher
- US sells 2-year notes in soft auction
- BOE's Bailey: We are seeing currently a much greater dispersion of wage settlements
- Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow +3.2% vs +3.7% prior
- Dallas Fed manufacturing index +4.6 vs +9.0 prior
- Big wobble in Treasury yields in a busy day of Fedspeak
- Fed's Evans: I see unemployment going below 4% before too long
- US August durable goods orders +1.8% vs +0.7% expected
- Fed's Rosengren will retire on Sept 30 after trading scandal
- The GBP is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins
There were a number of Fed officials speaking today and two that announced their retirement. The ones that spoke (Evans, Williams, Brianard) spoke specifically to rate changes not being anytime soon.
- Evans said that he sees one rate hike in 2023,
- Brainard said that no liftoff signal should be taken from the taper announcement, and
- Williams said that the criteria for a rate hike still a long way off.
Regarding the two Fed officials who resigned, both were recently questioned for their trading decisions during the pandemic and the extraordinary Fed stimulation. Dallas Fed president Kaplan cited the distractions from those investigations and scrutiny, while Rosengren who was scheduled to resign in June 2022, cited health reasons for his retirement.
In other news today, durable goods came in better than expected for the headline number at 1.8% versus 0.7%. However, ex transportation, the number came in weaker than expected 0.2% versus 0.5% estimate.
The U.S. Treasury auctioned off two and five year notes today. The 2 year auction was weak with the Bid-to-cover well below the 6 month average. The yield was higher than the WI level at the time of the auction. The 5 year auction was a bit better with the yield 0.4 basis points below the WI level. The U.S. Treasury will auction off seven year notes tomorrow to complete the auctions for the week.
In other markets today:
- Spot gold is trading up $0.45 or 0.03% at $1750.31
- Spot silver is up $0.22 or 1.02% $22.61
- WTI crude oil futures continued its run to the upside with a gain of $1.48 or 2.0% at $75.46. The gain today was the fifth consecutive update for crude oil futures.
- Bitcoin is trading down marginally $42,846
In the US debt market closing higher with the 10 year yield up 3.0 basis points. The five year yield is also up 3.0 basis points:
Looking at the forex market, the AUD is the strongest of the majors, while the JPY and CHF are the weakest. The USD Ms. trading mixed with small gains verse the EUr, JPY and CHF and small declines versus the AUD, GBP, CAD and NZD.
Some specific technicals for the new trading day in some of the major currency pairs:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD remains below its 100 hour moving average 1.17193, but above the swing lows from last week at 1.16827. The price in the pair today tested both those levels and found sellers above and below. The pair is trading between levels of 1.1696.
- GBPUSD The GBPUSD tried to move above its 200 hour moving average (currently at 1.37121), but failed near the 38.2% retracement 1.37247 (above the move down from the September high to the September low). It would take a move above each of those levels to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 1.36768. That will be eyed for support with a drop below being more bearish.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY is trading within a swing area comprised of the high price from March, the high price from June between 110.96 and 111.115. The current price is trading at 111.02. If the price can get above this swing area, the high price for the year at 111.653 would be targeted. That is the highest level going back to March 2020 when the high reached 111.709. The swing high from 2020 reach 112.238. That also will be a target on further upside momentum.
Good fortune with the trading