Forex news for North American trading on September 27, 2021

There were a number of Fed officials speaking today and two that announced their retirement. The ones that spoke (Evans, Williams, Brianard) spoke specifically to rate changes not being anytime soon.

  • Evans said that he sees one rate hike in 2023,
  • Brainard said that no liftoff signal should be taken from the taper announcement, and
  • Williams said that the criteria for a rate hike still a long way off.

Regarding the two Fed officials who resigned, both were recently questioned for their trading decisions during the pandemic and the extraordinary Fed stimulation. Dallas Fed president Kaplan cited the distractions from those investigations and scrutiny, while Rosengren who was scheduled to resign in June 2022, cited health reasons for his retirement.

In other news today, durable goods came in better than expected for the headline number at 1.8% versus 0.7%. However, ex transportation, the number came in weaker than expected 0.2% versus 0.5% estimate.

The U.S. Treasury auctioned off two and five year notes today. The 2 year auction was weak with the Bid-to-cover well below the 6 month average. The yield was higher than the WI level at the time of the auction. The 5 year auction was a bit better with the yield 0.4 basis points below the WI level. The U.S. Treasury will auction off seven year notes tomorrow to complete the auctions for the week.

In other markets today:

  • Spot gold is trading up $0.45 or 0.03% at $1750.31
  • Spot silver is up $0.22 or 1.02% $22.61
  • WTI crude oil futures continued its run to the upside with a gain of $1.48 or 2.0% at $75.46. The gain today was the fifth consecutive update for crude oil futures.
  • Bitcoin is trading down marginally $42,846

In the US debt market closing higher with the 10 year yield up 3.0 basis points. The five year yield is also up 3.0 basis points:

Forex news for North American trading on September 27, 2021_

Looking at the forex market, the AUD is the strongest of the majors, while the JPY and CHF are the weakest. The USD Ms. trading mixed with small gains verse the EUr, JPY and CHF and small declines versus the AUD, GBP, CAD and NZD.

The USD is mixed.

Some specific technicals for the new trading day in some of the major currency pairs:

  • EURUSD: The EURUSD remains below its 100 hour moving average 1.17193, but above the swing lows from last week at 1.16827. The price in the pair today tested both those levels and found sellers above and below. The pair is trading between levels of 1.1696.
  • GBPUSD The GBPUSD tried to move above its 200 hour moving average (currently at 1.37121), but failed near the 38.2% retracement 1.37247 (above the move down from the September high to the September low). It would take a move above each of those levels to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 1.36768. That will be eyed for support with a drop below being more bearish.
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY is trading within a swing area comprised of the high price from March, the high price from June between 110.96 and 111.115. The current price is trading at 111.02. If the price can get above this swing area, the high price for the year at 111.653 would be targeted. That is the highest level going back to March 2020 when the high reached 111.709. The swing high from 2020 reach 112.238. That also will be a target on further upside momentum.

Good fortune with the trading