Forex news for NY trading on August 28, 2018.
- Private crude oil inventory shows a surprise build in current week
- Major indices end the session with small changes in up and down session
- Senate has votes to confirm Clarida as Fed vice chair (update: confirmed)
- Gold gets back to its losing ways
- Iran oil exports are dropping faster than expected - report
- If you're watching the yield curve, this is the spot to watch
- Here's a handy look at what should be on your risk radar
- USDMXN moves above the 100 and 200 hour MA
- US sells $37 billion five-year notes at a high yield of 2.765%
- Bitcoin moves above it 100 day MA and trades above $7000
- Ross: It's likely next Congress will deal with NAFTA
- Guajardo: US-Canada NAFTA issues are dairy and gov't procurement
- European stocks end the session with mixed results
- Richmond Fed manufacturing index 24 versus 17 estimate
- US August Conference Board consumer confidence 133.4 vs 126.6 expected
- US June Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +0.11% vs +0.20% expected
- Germany considers offering Turkey a financial lifeline - report
- US wholesale inventories for July (P) 0.7% vs 0.2% est.
- US July advance goods trade deficit $72.2B vs $69.0B expected
- The CHF is the strongest while the USDs slide continues as NA traders enter
- Mnuchin: I don't anticipate a lot of problems with Canada on NAFTA
Other markets are showing:
- Spot gold tumbled $-10.76 or -0.9% back to $1200.59 on the back of a rebounding dollar. The 100 hour moving average comes in around the $1200 level. When the dollar rebounds, the price of gold tends to fall easily.
- WTI crude oil futures fell $.35 or -0.51% $60.52
- Bitcoin had a big day higher, rising by $384.48 moving above $7000 (trades at $7100 now) and is trading above the 100 day MA at $6932.00. Bullish.
The European stocks ended the session mixed. The US markets ended with modest gains. Nevertheless, the gains in the US were good enough for record closes for the NASDAQ and S&P.
In the US debt market today, yields moved higher and the yield curve steepened a bit for the 2nd consecutive day. The 30 year moved up by 4 bps. The 10 year moved up by 3.6 bps.
The 2-10 yield spread moved up to 21.68 bps near the close. That is up by about 1.2 bps on the day.
The snapshot of the forex market is showing the CHF is the strongest. The AUD is the weakest. At the start of the trading day, the USD was the weakest currency of the majors. At the end of the day, the greenback was more mixed with gains vs. the GBP, JPY, and AUD and declines vs the EUR, CHF, CAD and NZD.
The dollar was boosted in the session by a confident consumer.
Consumer confidence for the month of August rose to the highest level since November 2000 (yes 2000) and well above the expectations. The index rose to 133.4 vs 126.6 and the rise helped to turn sellers to buyers for the dollar and retrace earlier declines.
In other economic news todaY:
- The after math of the US/Mexican deal, gave traders confidence about a quick resolution for Canada and they bought CAD. In the process, the USDCAD fell below the 100 hour MA at 1.2995. However, the pair did hold just above the 38.2% retracement at 1.28794 and above the 200 hour MA at 1.28413. Having the price between the two moving averages is indicative of a "market" that is a bit unsure.
- The Richmond Fed index - like the consumer confidence came out stronger than expected at 24 vs 17 expected.. By itself, it tends not to be a big mover but seeing it came out when the consumer confidence, it did not hurt the dollar from grinding higher.
- The Advanced goods trade deficit was not what Pres Trump would like to see at -$72.2 B and higher than expectations. Imports rose to $212.2 from $210.3. That may have been some buying before the enactment of some additional US tariffs.
Technically:
- EURUSD: The EURUSD moved close to the swing ceiling at 1.1743-49. The high stalled at 1.1733 before selling off into the close on the dollar strength. The pair could not quite make it back to the prior day closing level but retraced 61.8% of the day's trading range at 1.1689.
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD came up a few pips short of retracing the entire move higher from the 1.28607 level to the 1.29314 level. The NY afternoon low reached 1.2864, right at the 100 hour MA at 1.28636. That MA will be the barometer for the bulls and bears in the new day.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY on Aug 23 had a ceiling at 110.92 and broke higher. On August 27, he price floor stalled at 110.93-95. Today the low stalled at 110.95. That area at 110.92-95 is a floor. Above it is the 100 hour MA at 111.106. The price in the NY session traded above and below that MA - so I can't really trust it - but staying above it will still be a bit more bullish.
