Forex news for North American trade on June 29, 2020:
- Florida coronavirus cases +3.7% vs 7-day average of 5.5%
- Fed's Williams: It's a difficult time to conduct economic forecasts
- US CDC reports 41,075 new coronavirus cases
- Fed's Daly says she has penciled in a slow and gradual recovery
- California coronavirus cases rise 2.5%
- Arizona reports just 625 new coronavirus cases, but there's a catch
- US Dallas Fed June manufacturing index -6.1 vs -22.0 expected
- Texas hospitalizations from coronavirus rise another 7.5%
- US May pending home sales -10.4% y/y vs -22.0% expected
- Canada May industrial product price +1.2% m/m vs +2.7% expected
- Canada May building permits 20.2% vs +10.4% expected
- Germany June preliminary CPI +0.9% vs +0.6% y/y expected
- Gold up $1 to $1772
- WTI crude oil up 98-centos to $39.47
- US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 0.633%
- S&P 500 up 35 points to 3044
- EUR leads, CHF lags
The market was poised for a positive, risk-on day early but after the stock market opened, the bottom fell out. The S&P 500 then tagged 3000 before technical buyers stepped in. After that, the rally gained further on the home sales data and Florida COVID cases, even though the latter was almost-certainly related to weekend effects.
The other effect likely in play was month/quarter-end as flows dominated. That helped to underpin dollar demand in New York and led to a sharp fall in GBP and a turnaround in the early big gains for the euro.
Commodity currencies were more restrained and finished close to flat.
USD/JPY remains a flow-driven mess that doesn't respond to fundamentals or headlines. Look for more of the same until the calendar turns and we get past the US holiday.