Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Another vote defeat by PM May
Forex news for NY trading on March 29, 2019
- WH National Security Advisor Bolton: Trump is eager for US trade deal with Britain
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: EUR shorts is the largest since December 2016
- Kudlow: Trump would like the Fed to stop shrinking balance sheet
- The top FX trade in Q1 was a reversal of the Q42018 trade
- Watch for help on the fiscal side for the Australian dollar
- Reactions to Canada's January GDP beat
- Fed's Kashkari: Glad Fed is pausing
- Baker Hughes oil rig count 816 vs 824 last week
- European shares end the session higher
- Fed's Kaplan speaks to reporters: Not committed to next policy move
- Fed's Quarles: 'Very comfortable' remaining patient at this point
- Jacob Rees-Moog: There will not be a MV4
- May spokesman: Things are moving in the right direction
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 forecast boosted to 1.71% from 1.53%
- Fed's Kaplan says he's open to various tools including repos to set rates
- Theresa May loses Brexit withdrawal agreement 286-344
- US new home sales for February 667K vs 620K estimate
- March U Mich final consumer sentiment 98.4 vs 97.8 prelim
- The GBPUSD backs off as vote approaches. Levels to eye and why they are important.
- Canada January GDP +0.3% vs 0.0% m/m expected
- US PCE Core YoY 1.8% vs 1.9% estimate.
- ForexLive European morning FX news wrap: Pound see-saws ahead of key Brexit vote
In other markets:
- Spot gold +$2.05 or 0.16% at $1292.47. The high reached $1300.10. The low extended to $1286.79
- WTI crude oil futures is trading up $.88 or 1.48% at $60.18
In the US stock market today, the major indices moved higher helped by hopes for US/China deal.
- S&P index rose 18.96 points or 0.67% at 2834.40. The high reached 2835.40. The low extended to 2819.23
- Nasdaq index rose 60.15 points or 0.78% at 7729.32. The high reached 7733.625. The low extended to 7688.512
- Dow industrial average rose 211.22 points or 0.82% at 25928.68. The high reached 25926.26. The low extended to 25771.67
For the month, the major indices closed with modest gains
- S&P index rose 1.79%
- NASDAQ index rose 2.61%
- Dow industrial average rose 0.05%
For the quarter, the gains were stellar with the:
- S&P index +13.07%
- NASDAQ index +16.49%
- Dow industrial average +11.15%
In the US debt market today, the shorter end of the curve rose while the longer end had less gains (or moved lower).
In the forex market today, the snapshot of the strongest and weakest is showing the CAD is the strongest while the JPY and GBP are the weakest.
For the CAD, the loonie benefitted from better GDP and producer price data. GDP rose by 0.3% vs 0.0%. The industrial product prices rose by 0.3% , while raw materials prices increased by 4.6% after a 4% gain in the prior month. That helped to send the USDCAD down from 1.3424 to a low of 1.33408. In the process, the pair moved back below its 200 hour MA at 1.33807. In the new week ahead, if that 200 hour MA is not broken to the upside, the sellers remain in control, with the 100 day MA at 1.33098 a key target on the downside next week.
The GBP remains under pressure today as the withdrawal agreement vote (PM May's latest attempt to come to an agreement) was voted down by a vote of 286 for to 344 against. The net result, is the Article 50 date will be April 12th instead of May 22. There is still time to avoid a no-deal Brexit, but if a deal can't be made by now, why should it change. The price action did see the price tumble froma about 1.3055 to a low of 1.2976. The one potentially bullish development is that at the low, the pair tested the 200 day MA at 1.2978, and bounced. However the correction was modest (less than 50% of the day's trading range. So sellers remain in control. In the new week, a move below the 200 day MA would be more bearish.
IN addition to the USD falling vs the CAD, the greenback also fell vs the AUD and the NZD. Recall the NZDUSD fell sharply on Wednesday this week on the back of the shift in bias from the RBNZ from neutral to more accomodative (the next move is likely to be a cut). That send the NZDUSD tumbling lower from about 0.6918 to 0.6786 on Wednesday and below its 100 day MA around the 0.6908 level. SInce then, the price action has seen the price trade above and below the 100 day MA with a high of 0.6827 and a low of 0.6773. We are closing just below the 100 day MA at around the 0.6800 level (100 day MA at 0.6908). That 100 day MA will be the bullish above/bearish below barometer for traders next week.
The AUDUSD also moved higher today (hopes for trade deal). However, it stalled on three separate tries at extending above the 100 and 200 hour MA at 0.7100 area and the 505 of the week's trading range at 0.7107. The high today reached 0.7104. The pair is closing near 0.7096. Next week, the 0.7100-07 area will be the barometer for the bulls and bears. Keep below is more bearish. Move above, would be more bullish.
For the USDJPY, the pair is closing near the week's highs (the low was reached on Monday at 109.69). The high for the week was reached today at 110.94. The price is closing at 110.81. Technically, the pair is closing above its 100 hour MA at 110.46 and 200 hour MA at 110.578. Stay above in the new week should see more upside potential. On the topside, the next key target is the 100 day MA at 111.107. The price has not been above that MA since the more dovish FOMC statement/presser on March 20.
Thank you for your support and wishing you all happy and healthy weekend.