Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar recovers. Fed minutes back gradual rate hikes
Forex news for US trading on January 3, 2018
- Oil - private inventory data reports smaller than expected draw in US crude stocks
- The stock market trifecta. All three indices are closing at record levels.
- Autodata: Dec. light vehicle sales SAAR 17.85M units
- WH: Bannon claims that Donald Trump Jr was treasonous is ridiculous
- USDJPY nearly makes it to the 100 hour MA after minutes
- US dollar ticks higher after FOMC minutes
- FOMC Minutes: Most backed continued gradual rate hikes
- What's priced in for the Federal Reserve this year
- Trump: Bannon has 'lost his mind'
- Ripple continues to sizzle as it climbs another 26% to new high
- Will the euro test the ECB's patience again? - Credit Agricole
- The most-underrated economic factor is still the weather
- Ray Dalio: Debt will be a drag on the recovery
- European stock markets climb at the close
- Bitcoin bias remains more bullish as price stays above 200 hour MA
- GBPUSD runs down to trend line/MA on continued selling after data
- US construction spending for November 0.8% vs 0.5% estimate
- December US ISM manufacturing index 59.7 vs 58.2 expected
- The euro is likely to 'weaken significantly' in Q1 - BAML
- Bannon: Trump Tower meeting was 'treasonous', they should have called FBI
- The AUD is the strongest, while the CHF is the weakest as NA traders enter
- ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar finds some steady footing as the euro slips
In other markets, the end of day snapshot is showing:
- Spot gold is down -$4.80 or -0.36% at $1312.70
- WTI crude oil is trading higher by $1.55 or 2.57% at $61.92. The private API data showed another drawdown of inventories. The cold front that is blanketing the US is also supportive for energy consumption.
- US yields show the 2 year up, while the rest of the curve is showing declines. 2 year 1.9272%, up 0.8 this points. five-year 2.2414%, -0.6 basis points. 10 year 2.4434%, -2 basis points. Thirty-year 2.7824%, -3.1 basis points
- US stock indices all closed at record levels. S&P index was up 0.64%. NASDAQ composite index was up 0.84%. The Dow industrial average was up 0.4%.
The US dollar recovered after declines seen over the last week or so. The green back was higher vs. all the major currencies with the exception of the AUD. It was strongest against the CHF, GBP and EUR.
There were a few catalysts for the move today from a fundamental perspective.
- US construction spending for the month of November rose by 0.8%.
- ISM manufacturing index for December was also better than expected at 59.7 versus 58.2 expectations
- Auto sales were decent
- Fed minutes from the last meeting showed
The data was supportive to the notion of +3% growth in the 4Q and indeed the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate to 3.2% from 2.8% on Friday. That is closer to the NY Fed's estimate for growth, but still a good ways below their estimate. On Friday the NY Fed estimates that Q4 growth would be 3.9%. They will update their estimate on Friday.
The FOMC Meeting minutes were also released in the afternoon trading and it led to a slight move higher in the dollar on the back of the members saying that gradual rate hikes are still in order.
Finally, the final auto sales for December were released, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate came in at 17.9M units. That was better than the 17.5M estimate. Actual numbers for the year of 2017 showed the auto industry sold 17.23M units. It was the 3rd year in a row, that auto sales were greater than 17M. However, this year was lower than last years 17.6M record sales pace.
the EURUSD fell back below the 1.2042 level which was the swing low going back to 2012. The low did stall at the natural 1.12000 level. The consolidation/correction over the last day and a half, has allowed the 100 hour MA to catch up with the price. It stands at 1.1992 (and rising) going into the new day. There have only been 7 hourly bar over the last 10 trading days where the price traded below that MA. A move below will be more bearish in the new day.
The GBPUSD fell back below the 1.3532 level on the back of the better US data (ISM and Construction spending). The fall stalled on two separate occasions near the 100 hour MA. That MA comes in currently at 1.3505 (and rising). Move below and stay below would be more bearish. Stay above (currently trading at 1.3512) and the buyers might come back in. The sellers were in control all day today after 5 days of higher closes.
The USDJPY got within 2 pips of the 100 day MA yesterday. In trading today, the rally higher got within 2 pips of the 100 hour MA on the topside. That spike came on the FOMC meeting minutes and the price backed off into the close. The boundaries have been set with each MA defining the upper and lower extremes. Will there be a break in the new trading day?