Forex news for US trading on November 3, 2015

  • US stocks up on the day but off the highs
  • Upcoming keys events in the new trading day. NZDUSD and AUDUSD tech levels
  • S&P affirms Canada rating; Outlook stable
  • US total vehicle sales come in at 18.24M annualized vs. 17.7M estimate
  • ECB Draghi: "Will meet our price stability mandate"
  • Gold trends lower and lower
  • SNB Jordan: Swiss franc remains significantly overvalued
  • ECB Padoan: ECB policy alone cannot do the job
  • European stocks end mixed on the day
  • Volkswagon car sales rise 0.24%. Honda up 8.6%
  • IBD/TIPP Economic optimism index 45.5 vs. 47.4 estimate
  • US Factory orders for September-1.0 vs. -0.9% estimate
  • GM auto sales beat estimates
  • Ford sales up 13% on the month
  • ECB says lending to banks fell 1.11B to 531.2B
  • Nissan Oct US Auto sales rise 13%
  • US Redbook same store sales 4-wk for Oct. up 0.1% vs Sept.
  • Fonterras Global Dairy Price index falls 7.4% at the recent auction
  • The strongest and weakest currencies as NY traders enter for the trading day

The economic "high" light came from US vehicle sales today. The annualized sales pace reached 18.24M. With last month's pace at 18.2M, it is the first time since 2000 that auto sales exceeded 18M in two successive months. Impressive. Not so impressive (or "low" light) was the US Factory orders which came in at -1.0% for the headline and -0.6% ex trans. Moreover, the prior month was revised lower (-2.1% vs -1.7% previous).

As for the USD, it was once again mixed with the greenback rising against the EUR, JPY, CHF and NZD and falling against the GBP (it was close to unchanged), the CAD and the AUD.

Currency pair highlights and key technical levels into the new day include:

The EURUSD was lower on the day - falling below the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.0987) and 50% of the move up from October 28 low at 1.0984. ECB's Draghi reiterated the threat for more stimulus in a speech today. That should keep a lid on the upside. Look for the 100 hour MA and the 50% to cap any rally if that is the case.

The GBPUSD fell to a nice support target at the 100 and 200 hour MA (see post here) and stopped right there. The subsequent rally took the price back above the 1.5400 level (midpoint of the day's range). That level will be eyed as close support.

The USDJPY made it's way above and below the 200 day MA for the 7th of the last 8 trading days. That MA comes in at 121.04. One day the price will move and trend away (and stay away). Be patient but be aware.

The USDCAD rallied in sympathy with the USD bullishness. The move higher took out the 100 and 200 hour MA and a trend line along the way. All was unwound as traders forgot about the USD and instead focused on the price of oil The price ended up tumbling below the low for the day/the low from yesterday. The low came in at 1.3037. The 100 day MA is at 1.3003. Keep that level in mind in the new day. A move below could see further selling pressure in the pair.

The NZDUSD is ending the day on the bearish side as employment for the 3rd quarter came in weaker. If the bearishness should continue, the 100 day MA comes in at 0.6583. Before that level, the 38.2% at 0.6644 will need to be breached and stay breached. Be aware.

US stocks were up but off their highs at the close. US bond yields rose with the yield curve steepening. The 2 year yield was up 1 bp to 0.765% while the 10 year bond yield rose by 4 bp to 2.214%. Oil prices were down and gold also slid lower.

Australia will announce retail sales and trade later today. Tomorrow in the US, Janet Yellen testifies in Washington. The ADP employment report, US and Canada trade and ISM Non manufacturing will all be released. Big day ahead.