Forex news for NY trading on April 30, 2020
- US stocks end with declines on the day
- CDC US total cases rises to 1,031,659 versus 1,005,147 yesterday
- J Crew preparing to file for bankruptcy
- New Jersey reports record 460 deaths from coronavirus in day
- California cases rise by 5.2% to 48,917
- Crude oil gives up some of the gains. Trades to New York session lows.
- US 2 year yield falls to the lowest level since 2011
- US officials pondering ways to punish China for coronavirus
- European major indices close near session lows
- Big moves hit the FX market, particularly JPY. Likely month-end fixing flows in play
- White House economic advisor: Expects unemployment rate at 19%
- Fed expanding scope, eligibility of Main Street loan program
- Lagarde and VP Luis de Guindos Q&A highlights (continuous)
- ECB Lagarde Press conference highlights from prepared remarks
- Canada February GDP +2.1% vs +2.2% y/y expected
- US March personal spending -7.5% vs -5.0% expected
- US initial jobless claims 3839K versus 3500K estimate
- The GBP is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the day
In other market near the day close shows:
- Spot gold fell sharply today. The current price is trading down $29 or -1.7% at $1684. For a technical look click here
- WTI crude oil futures are trading sharply higher today by $4.17 or 27.76% at $19.24 that is near the high price for the day at $19.37. For the 2nd contract or July contract the price is also higher. It currently trades up $3 or 15.85% at $22.12. That too is near its highs for the day at $22.30
The weekly initial claims data was released and once again showed a large increase although slower than the previous week.
Total claims came in at 3.839 million versus 3.5 million estimate. That brings the total job losses to 30.3 million since mid March when the US economy was for the most part closed.
The labor departments monthly employment numbers will be released next week (Friday). The early estimates for nonfarm payroll are for a -22 million job decline with the unemployment rate rising to 16%. White House economic advisor Hassett interview on Fox news today gave a even more bleak assessment when he said that he expects the unemployment rate to be around 19%.
Oh how the tides can turn in a hurry.
In other news the ECB kept the major financing rates unchanged. Highlights of the other stimulus measures included:
- QE purchases to continue at monthly pace of €20 billion, together with purchases under additional €120 billion temporary envelope
- Fully prepared to increase size of PEPP and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed
- Will conduct asset purchases under PEPP until it judges that coronavirus crisis phase is over, but in any case until the end of the year
- Expects interest rates to remain at present or lower levels until it has seen inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below 2%
- Announces new series of pandemic LTROs or PLTROs i.e. refinancing operations for banks
- TLTRO conditions further eased
Today was month-end and around the London fixing, the EUR, CHF and GBP surged verse the US dollar on flow demand, while the JPY, AUD and CAD fell vs the greenback. Overall the dollar was marginally lower on the day but mixed overall.
How did the major indices fair for the month?
Looking at the major currencies, the AUD was the strongest, while the EUR was the weakest. The USD is ending the month with declines versus the GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD and NZD, while rising marginally vs the EUR and the CHF.
The biggest percentage mover for the month was the AUDCHF which saw that pair rise by 6.74%. Just behind it was the EURAUD which had a 6.56% move.
IN the stock market today, the major indices fell and are moving lower after the close on the back of weaker than expected Amazon earnings. Apple beat on the top and bottom line but is marginally lower after the close as well.
For the month, however, the major indices at percentage changes that have not been seen in decades:
- Dow industrial average rose 11.08% which was the highest gain since October 2002
- S&P index rose by 12.68% which was the highest gain since January 1987
- NASDAQ index rose by 15.45% which was the highest gain since June 2000
Some technical levels in the major currency pairs:
- GBPUSD surged higher until reaching the 200 day moving average at 1.2644. That was the 2nd test of the moving average this month and the 2nd time that the market stopped right at the level. The pair is closing the day at 1.2593. Going forward if the buyers are to push this pair higher, they need to get and stay above that 200 day moving average.
- EURUSD based at the 200 hour moving average weight down at the 108.30 area and surged over a 2 hour period to an intraday high price for the day at 1.0971 (a move of about 140 pips). THe price correction of the move higher corrected just above the 38.2% retracement and started to move back higher into the close. Although the price came up short, we are trading near the 1.0950 level.