Forex news for NY traders on January 30, 2017

  • Stocks down but off lows at the close
  • US crude oil futures settle at $52.63/barrel. Remain contained in a range.
  • RBNZ's Wheeler to announcement on future "fairly soon"
  • BOJ is a 'secondary engine' for USD/JPY - Deutsche Bank
  • Netanyahu to visit White House Feb 15, will discuss Iran sanctions
  • Trump issues regulations on regulations
  • GBPUSD below 100 day MA but stalling at 200 hour MA
  • Eurozone confidence corrected to 107.9 from 108.2
  • EURUSD moves back between into the wide line in the sand
  • Dallas Fed trimmed mean jumps to 1.8% in December from 1.2% in November
  • Citi trade of the week: Sell GBP/USD
  • The US is officially out out of TPP
  • The initial Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 1Q comes in at 2.3%
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing index 22.1 vs 15.0 est
  • December 2016 US pending home sales 1.6% vs 1.0% exp m/m
  • There will simply be no deal for UK without EU parliament consent - EU's Verhofstadt
  • December 2016 US personal income 0.3% vs 0.4% exp m/m
  • The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

IN other markets today:

  • US stock close lower but off the lows. S&P is down -0.60%, Nasdaq is down -0.83%. Dow is down -0.61%
  • US debt yields were little changed: 2 year yield 1.212%, unchanged; 5 year yield 1.9475%, unchanged; 10 year yield 2.486%, unchanged; 30 year yield 3.076% +1.8 BP
  • Spot Gold is trading at 1195.37, up $4.07 or +0.34%
  • Crude oil after hours are trading at $52.66, -$0.50 or -0.96%

The USD had an up and up down session today with the NY session being to the downside. Lower stocks seemed to be the catalyst for the move. From the economic front, personal income was a bit lighter than expectations at +0.3% vs +0.4% estimate, but spending was in line at +0.5%. PCE data (headline and core) were also about as expected at +0.2% and +0.1% MoM respectively. Pending homes sales were a bit better at 1.6% vs 1.1% estimates. Although higher, it did not fully erase the -2.5% drop from last month.

The USDJPY was the most impacted of the majors today. It fell by -1.17% far outpacing the dollars fall against the CHF (-0.43%), the CAD (-0.30%) and the NZD (-0.37%). Technically, the USDJPY fell below the neckline on head and shoulders on the hourly chart and also 100 and 200 hour MA support. Those levels came in between 114.135 and 114.26. The break sent the pair to a day low at 113.44. The pair rallied modestly into the NY session close (closed at 113.76). Into the new trading day, the 50% of the move up from the January 23rd low at 113.94 will be a level to eye for sellers. If the weakness from today is to continue, I would look for sellers to enter against that area (up to 114.00ish).

The EURUSD is ending the day little changed, but that does not give justice to the up and down activity. At the Asian Pacific highs, the pair was up about 46 pips. At the day lows, the pair was down about 73 pips. At the close, the pair was near the Friday close at 1.0693. The corrective high in the NY session did stall between what is key resistance defined by the 200 hour MA at 1.0702, the 100 hour MA at 1.0710 and the 1.0706 level which represents the 38.2% of the move down from the November high. That areas (between 1.070-2-1.0710) will be the line in the sand for bulls and bears into the new day. Stay below is more bearish. Move above it should be more bullish.

The GBPUSD fell and closed back below the 100 day MA at 1.2508 (the new 100 day MA is 1.2500 in the new trading day). Last week (on Wednesday), the price moved above that MA line for the 1st time since Brexit day (June 24, 2016). Three days later and the price is back below the key MA technical level. Bears are back in control below that level. A move below the 200 hour MA at 1.2474 will be eyed in the new trading day. That MA and the 50% of the move up from the Jan 20 low (on hourly chart) at 1.2466 stalled the fall in trading today. Get below those levels and the bears are feeling more confident.

The AUDUSD closed the day little changed from Friday and also closed right near the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.7548 and 0.7552. That is not new. As the price has consolidated in up and down trading over the last 4 trading days, the price has traded above and below those MA levels on each day. The trading ranges are getting more narrow too. Today's range was only about 40 pips. The market does not know what it wants to do. It is confused. So insit settles by trading around the MA. At some point, we will get a break and run. Look for moves away from the MA and breaks of the recent high/low extremes. It would be best if it had some push from some data. The problem is their is not much coming out today.

Below is a snapshot of the major currencies % change against each other.