Forex news for North American trade on June 4, 2020:
- ECB cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -8.7%, lowers inflation forecasts
- Lagarde opening statement: Economy has showed signs of bottoming out
- Lagarde Q&A: We are 'confident' that a 'good solution' will be found on German court concerns
- US trade balance for April -$49.4B vs -$49.4B estimate
- US Q1 final non-farm productivity -0.9% vs -2.7% expected
- US initial jobless claims 1877K vs. 1843K estimate
- Canada April international merchandise trade balance -3.25B vs -3.00B expected
- Canada's CMHC to tighten mortgage lending standards - report
- Lighthizer: Report on China not honoring soybean buys is false
- BOC's Gravelle: Clear signs that credit is flowing and financial system is working well
- US CDC reports 14,676 coronavirus cases yesterday vs 24,955 a day earlier
- Gold up $15 to $1715
- US 10-year yields up 7 bps to 0.815%
- Italy 10-year yields down 13 bps to 1.42%
- WTI crude up 12-cents to $37.41
- S&P 500 down 10 points to 3112
- EUR leads, JPY lags
The euro was the big mover on the day as it extended the winning streak to nine days. The bears tried to sell the statement and the end of the press conference but the higher PPE than expected tightened spreads and added a fresh bid that couldn't be overcome.
Price action was much more nuanced elsewhere. An early uptick in risk sentiment spilled over into a bump in AUD/USD to 0.6988 but it couldn't break the figure and fell back to 0.6939. Risk trades stumbled into the final hour of Wall Street trade and that added to the downside, but the FX market generally ignored stocks.
The more-meaningful intermarket move was in the long end of the bond market. 10-year yields broke the 4-week range and 0.80% and that helped to lift USD/JPY, which finished up a quarter-cent at the highs of the day even with stocks struggling.
Cable remains stuck in the mud. After a fall early in London it took advantage of the weak US dollar but not with anywhere near the same vigor as the euro. After a few cracks at 1.2625 it settled back just below 1.2600.
Friday is jobs day in Canada and the US so it was no big surprise to see some consolation in USD/CAD. It made a few round trips in the 1.3475-1.3540 range before settling close to 1.3500.