Forex news for Americas trading on October 4, 2019:
- September non-farm payrolls +136K vs +145K expected
Canada international merchandise trade balance for August -0.96B vs -1.2B estimate
US trade balance for August $-54.9 billion versus $-54.5 billion estimate
- Fed's Powell: US economy in a good place, despite some risks
- US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count 710 vs 713 prior
- Fed's Rosengren: We have to worry about financial stability
- Fed's Bostic: Uncertainty over trade has businesses delaying investment
- Trump says a good deal with China could happen
- CFTC commitments of traders: The largest position remains GBP shorts
Markets:
- Gold flat at $1504
- US 10-year yields down 1.5 bps to 1.52%
- WTI crude up 43-cents to $52.86
- S&P 500 up 41 points to 2952
- CHF leads, USD lags
The jobs report had something for everyone and that led to varying market reactions. In FX, the US dollar softened because the wage data in the report was soft enough to keep the Fed in play, while the headline wasn't soft enough to spark risk aversion.
USD/JPY initially climbed to 107.15 from 106.75 on relief that the jobs report wasn't bad but it gave back about half the gains over the remainder of the day, despite the optimism in stock markets.
The euro didn't so much to close out the week. It bounced around on the jobs report but was generally in a narrowing range right around where it closed. The ECB minutes are due next week.
Cable came under some pressure early in North American trade but bottomed into the options expiration at 1.2276 and then made its way back to unchanged at 1.2334.
AUD/USD was one of the few steady trends as it benefited from some better talk on US-China trade in a slow move to 0.6770 from 0.6745 at the dawn of US trade.
USD/CAD finished lower as oil gained for the first time in nine trading days. The Ivey PMI hit a three-year low but the market brushed off the volatile indicator. Canadian trade balance was a bit better than expected but had minimal impact.
