Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Good and bad coronavirus news today has markets uneasy

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: News

Forex news for NY trading on April 7, 2020

In other markets:

  • Crude oil futures continued its moved to the downside after reports that OPEC was mulling only a 3 month decline in production was not taken favorably by the market. The futures are trading at $24.11 that's down $-1.97 or -7.55% on the day
  • spot gold trade is high as $1679.68 overnight, but give up those gains coming into the New York session and is currently trading down $-9.20 or -0.55% at $1651.71. The low for the day reach $1642.92
  • US yields are trading near midrange in what was then up and down session. The 10 year yield is at 0.731% up 6.1 basis points but well off the 0.782% high and well above the 0.676% low. Below are the changes in ranges for the US debt instruments in trading today

US yields

There was some good news and bad news on the coronavirus front today.  

The good:

  • NY daily ICU admissions fell to the lowest level since March 20 at 89 and down markedly from the 395 number from Saturday's high water mark.  
  • Gov. Cuomo said that hospitalizations is reaching a plateau
  • Italy continued to show coronavirus curve flattening. The total new cases total 3038 versus 3599 yesterday. That was the lowest since March 13. The death toll rose 3.7% versus 4% yesterday
  • France cases rose by 3.9% versus 5.6% yesterday
  • New Jersey reported cases up 3326 versus 3663 new cases yesterday
The not so good news:
  • New Jersey deaths rose by 229 versus 86 yesterday
  • New York deaths rose by 733 versus 599 yesterday, 
  • Italy death toll has reached 17,127 and the daily deaths at 604 versus 636 yesterday is still a hefty number
  • The CDC in the NY afternoon  reported a 13% rise in cases versus 8.5% yesterday to 374,329 vs 330,891.  They also reported a whopping 35% increase in deaths to 12,064 versus 8910 yesterday.   Those are also significant increases for a single day suggesting either there is a catch up in their data or the numbers are indeed starting to spread across the country him him
The CDC numbers led to a "give back" of decent gains in US stock indices.  

Looking at the percentage changes of the major indices, the NASDAQ index is closing in the red by -0.33%, after being up 2.95%. The S&P index is also closing lower at -0.16% after being up by 3.5% at its highs. The Dow industrial average closed down -0.12% after being up +4.13%. Admittedly, the numbers are staying within the circuit breaker levels, but an intraday change of 3-4% is still significant.

US stocks gave up gains In the forex market today, the US dollar was the weakest of the major currencies while the AUD was the strongest.  Each started the North American session as the biggest movers. However, in the NY session, the USD got even weaker, while the AUD lost some of its "risk on" strength in the NY session.  The CHF also got stronger on flight to safety flows, and the JPY fell on flow out of the safety of the JPY as stocks, crude oil declined.  

The strongest and weakest currencies for the day

Looking at some of the major currency pairs:
  • EURUSD: The EURUSD it is trading between its 200 hour moving average above at 1.09372 and 100 hour moving average below 1.08497. The midpoint of that range is 1.0894 and the current price is trading at 1.0896 - just above the midpoint.
  • GBPUSD:  The GBPUSD traded above and below its converged 100 and 200 hour moving averages currently at 1.2328 area.  The price is currently trading above those moving averages at 1.2344. If the price can remain above that would give the buyers more confidence. Move below and the up and down chop seen through the end of the London morning session and entire New York session will remain in place.  
  • USDJPY: The USDJPY trade above and below its 100 day moving average at 108.944, but between channel trend lines. The topside trend line currently comes in at 109.09 (the moving lower). The bottom trend line is currently at 108.57 (the moving lower). With the current price at 108.82, it remains between those 2 moving averages.
  • USDCHF: The USDCHF trended mostly lower for the day, and in the NY session extended below a swing area at 0.97179 to 0.97122.  The low price stalled at the 38.2% retracement at 0.96833. Should the price move below that level in the new trading day, the 200 hour moving average at 0.96716 will be a another hurdle. Get below it opens up the door for further selling. For now, however, the price remains above the 38.2% retracement going into the close. The current price is at 0.9693 while the 38.2% retracement is at 0.96833.
Wishing you all good fortune in your trading. Stay healthy

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