Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Pres Trump goes on vacation (working vacation) and the markets die

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: News

Forex news for North American traders on August 7, 2017

In other markets, the snapshot shows:

  • Spot gold is up 4.08 points or 0.16%
  • WTI Crude oil is down -$0.27 or -0.52%
  • US yields are unchanged (the 5-30 year are really down but only by less than -0.5 bp)
  • The Dow and S&P closed at record levels. S&P up 0.16%. The Dow up 0.12%. The Nasdaq which is still off it's high closing level by 39 points, was up 32.09 points or 0.51%.
The markets were very quiet today:
  • It is Monday.
  • It is Monday after NFP  (NFP hangover).
  • It is Monday in August.
  • It is Monday when Pres. Trump continued his official 17-day "working vacation"  (Does anyone think past President's did not "stay in touch with the office" while on their "working vacations."?)
  • It is Monday with no data?
  • It is Monday when oft quoted Fed members Neil Kashkari and James Bullock spoke.
  • It is a Monday that the Dow closed at record levels for the 9th consecutive time and the S&P made a new record high too. Ho hum.....
  • It is a Monday when treasury yields were little changed.
There just was not a whole lot going on in the North American session.

Now if you look at the % changes of the major currency pairs (see above), the EUR and the NZD were the strongest and weakest currencies respectively, and they had some pretty meaningful changes.  However, the moves were done before NY traders arrived and most of the action was in those currencies.

Looking at the pip moves from Friday's close vs the USD, the GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD all are closing with changes less than 10 pips.  That is not a lot.

For the pairs that did move, the USDCAD started the NY session up 37 pips. It is ending the session up 34 pips. 

The EURUSD started the NY session up 25 pips. It is ending the day up 22 pips. 

The NZDUSD started the day down -50 pips. It is ending the day down -46 pips.  

It was a sleepy NY session.  

So any technical levels in play?

The EURUSD traded all of the day above the 200 hour MA (currently at 1.17857).  We are still trading above that MA into the new trading day.  The 100 hour MA is above at 1.1828.  On the downside, an upward sloping trend line on the hourly chart comes in at 1.1755 now (MA is moving higher).  

The USDJPY traded below and then above it's 200 hour MA at 110.675 currently.   Since July 12th, the vast majority of the time has traded BELOW that MA.  Being above is therefor more bullish but the market price is not exactly racing to the upside.  In the new day, if the bulls are to keep control....stay above the 200 hour MA If it cannot, a retest of the lower 100 hour MA at 110.53 will be the next target (with a break of that more bearish).  On the topside, the 111.00 level needs to be broken (and remain broken) 

The GPBUSD got close to the 1.3000 level (low reached 1.3012) and bounced modestly in to the close (the high near the close reached 1.3036).  The 24 pips was all the pair could muster in the new trading day.  In the new day, the 1.3000 remains a key level to get below for a more bearish technical picture. The 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 1.2978 and would be another downside target.    On the topside, the 1.30818 is where the 100 hour MA and a trend line intersect on the 4-hour chart.  Getting above that level would take some (a lot) of the bearishness out of last weeks two day tumble.  

Good fortune with your trading....

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