Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: A wild day in the markets

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: News

Forex news for NY trading on August 7, 2019

A snapshot of other markets:

  • Spot gold, up $26.80 or 1.82% at $1501.08
  • WTI crude oil is down -$1.28 or -2.38% at $52.36
  • Spot silver is up $0.6620 or 4.03% at $17.112
The markets went on a wild ride today the NY session through midday saw yields tumbling, stocks tumbling, gold rallying, and oil crumbling, but then a later day rally that reversed markets.

At the end of the day, 
  • The broader US indices ended with modest gains. That was no small feat given the Nasdaq was down -1.67% at the lows (ended up 0.38%) and the S&P was down as much as -1.95% (ended up 0.08%). 
 Forex news for NY trading on August 7, 2019.
  • The US 10 year note is ending up 1.2 bps at 1.7139% after being as low as 1.5931% at the session lows.  
US yields felll sharply but ending the day up marginally 
  • Gold (as mentioned, reached as high at $1510 before coming back down a bit to $1501.08.
  • Crude oil traded as low as $50.52 but rallied to $52.36 by the close.
What caused all the volatility?  

The markets continue to be reacting to global worries about US/China. 

That fear led to the RBNZ cutting rates by a greater than expected 50 bps at the start of the day (25 was expected).  Later India and Thailand also cut rates as countries (in general) seem to want to get ahead of the Fed in stimulating, and are happy to "ask questions" later. 

That in turn had Pres. Trump tweeting once again his displeasure with the Fed (of course throwing 10% tariffs and threats of 25% around does change the dynamics for the Fed and the economy but that goes unsaid). All of which did not help the yields and stocks. Both picked up steam to the downside. 

Meanwhile in the forex market, it had it's own related stories to trade off of.  

For the EURUSD, the reaction lately is if stocks falter, the EURUSD rallies (whats bad for the US is good for the EU. I guess there is hopes that China deals more with the EU).  That helped to send the EURUSD pair above its 100 day MA at 1.12249 to a high of 1.1241.

The USDCAD moved higher on the back of the falling oil prices. The price of USDCAD moved above it's 100 day MA at 1.3300 to a high of 1.3343.

The NZDUSD tumbled on the back of the rate decision early in the Asian sesson, but saw a rebound to the 50% of the days range as the USD started to take on some heat (midpoint is at 0.6467 and that is where the price rally stalled).  

The USDJPY traded below the low from yesterday (which was another new low going back to the flash crash on January 3rd) at 105.51, to a new low of 105.484. The market could not go any further.  

The USDCHF tested the June low at 0.9693 level with the low reaching 0.96915, but could not go any further. 

After London had left for the day, there were comments from Fed's Evans with some dovish overtones.  

Secretary of State Pompeo spoke with UK's Raab about signing a trade agreement as soon as Brexit is figured out.  

Ironically a bad auction for 10 year notes, helped to send yields higher and the market cheered the reversal of yields 

In the oil market, the Saudi's came out with a few headlines saying that the price of oil falling is because of fear and that they would be working with producers to get the price back higher. That sent crude oil higher which appeased stocks as well.  

As a result, in the forex:

  • The EURUSD fell back below the 100 day MA at 1.1224 and headed back toward the 1.1200 level
  • The USDCAD - on the rally back in oil - moved lower and tested the 100 and 200 day MAs at the 1.3300 level (down from 1.3343).
  • The USDJPY and USDCHF each squeezed higher  - helped by the fundamental stories and the fact that the breaks to new lows, could not gather additional downside momentum. The USDJPY moved from 105.49 to a NY afternoon high of 106.26 and the USDCHF moved from 0.9691 to 0.9753.
Now of course, what goes up can easily go down again (and visa versa), but for now the market seems to have dodged a meltdown in stocks, bond yields and crude oil.  Tomorrow is a new day....

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