Forex news for North American trade on February 7, 2020:
- US January non-farm payrolls +225K vs +165K expected
- Canada net change in employment for January 34.5K versus 17.5K estimate
- Fed: Downside risks eased in late 2019 but virus is a new threat
- Kudlow: Xi reassured Trump that China would meet targets for purchases, despite delays
- US December final wholesale inventories -0.2% vs -0.1% expected
- Canada January Ivey PMI 57.3 vs 51.9 prior
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Dollar longs increase, AUD a spot to watch
- US December consumer credit +$22.1B vs +$15.0B expected
- Baker Hughes oil rigs 676 verse 675 last week
Markets:
- Gold up $4 to $1570
- WTI crude oil down 61-cents to $50.34
- US 10-year yields down 6 bps to 1.58%
- S&P 500 down 18 points to 3327
- JPY leads, NZD lags
Non-farm payrolls wasn't as straightforward as the headlines looked. The dollar initially rose but a big -514K benchmark revision showed there are fewer jobs in the economy than believed. After the initial pop in USD/JPY to 110.00 it quickly fell back to 109.70 then continued down to 109.59 at the lows of the day as sentiment soured. However there was a bounce after the European close on broad USD buying and the par returned to 109.85.
Canadian jobs data gave the loonie an initial 30-pip lift but it lasted only minutes as the focus then shifted back to low oil prices and the overall risk trade. The loonie held up better than its commodity cousins as the mood soured.
The story of the week and the day was USD strength and it was AUD that broke through the October low to the worst levels since 2009. I might have expected a bit more downside momentum on the break but it was halted quickly, with no deeper probe for stops. However the pair still finished just off the lows.
Cable was the laggard on the week, falling hard Monday and then 3 of the next four days as well. It hit a new post-election low in a quick 50-pip slide through stops and then continued to sag right until the final trade of the day, finishing down 40 pips on the day at 1.2892.
The euro also broke through the December low convincingly after probing it yesterday. Most of the damage was done early in the day and there was a little pop on some chatter about fiscal stimulus but every bounce is another reason to sell at the moment and it closed on the lows.
Have a great weekend.
