Forex news for North American trading on June 7, 2019:
- US May non-farm payrolls +75K vs 175K expected
- Canada net change in employment 27.7K vs 5.0K estimate
- Trump says "there is a good chance" deal with Mexico will be done
- Baker Hughes oil rig counts down to 789 vs 800 est
- Barclays sees a 50 bp cut in July
- New York Fed Q2 GDP Nowcast 1.0% vs 1.5% a week ago
- US April wholesale sales -0.4% vs -0.2% expected
- Xi: We should find a solution to trade war despite disagreements
- Pence chief-of-staff: White House moving ahead with Mexico tariff plan, still time to talk
- US extends China tariff timeline to June 15 for some products subject to increase
- CFTC commitments of traders: EUR and JPY short trimmed in the current week
- US consumer credit for April $17.497 billion versus $13 billion estimate
Markets:
- S&P 500 up 30 points to 2873
- WTI crude up $1.45 to $63.50
- Gold up $5 to $1340
- US 10-year yields down 4 bps to 2.08%
- CAD leads, USD lags
The jobs report were the big story of the day and a weak non-farm payrolls number along with soft wage growth sparked US dollar weakness across the board. Talk of rate cuts ramped up with the market now looking at a 75% chance in July.
In Canada it was a different story as the unemployment rate fell to an all-time low on another month of surprise strength. USD/CAD fell 0.75% with the pair down to 1.3267 and finishing just above the lows of the day.
The head-scratcher in markets continues to by why equity markets are so buoyant. Rate cut hopes are obviously part of the equation but that's going to be little consolation of there is a recession or sharp slowdown due to a trade war. USD/JPY reflected that push and pull as it fell to 107.88 after the jobs report but clawed back to 108.19 late as stocks jumped. The low held the post-ADP lows so that's a level to watch next week.
Gold is another interesting technical trade. It took out -- briefly -- the February high of $1346 before settling $6 below it. I imagine that if the Fed strongly hints at a rate cut in July at next week's meeting then it's going to break out.
Have a great weekend. US CPI and retail sales are highlights next week and with a deadline on the Mexico tariff file on Monday it is sure to be an interesting week.
