Perhaps there is scope for some sort of US - China agreement stemming from the Trump - Xi meeting at the G20 summit.

'Agree to keep talking' seems the most likely outcome IMO, but we'll soon find out. Any increase in hostility would be a negative but a dinner together is probably not going to lead to this, at least right away.

When do we get a deal? If we do.?

An interesting overnight note from ING says it'll not be until towards the end of this year:

both sides want a deal

  • China can hurt the US economically but it knows that the US can hurt China even more.
  • President Trump needs a deal to show the American people that he delivers on his promises to get better terms of trade for the US. He knows that this is best done without the US economy having to suffer from Chinese retaliation for an extended period of time.

We expect a deal to be struck in the last quarter of this year

  • it is likely that China as well as the US are prepared to make concessions in the end
  • After all, this is what's happened in the renegotiation of Nafta
  • To strike a deal, Trump had to accept that Mexico and Canada would not agree to all of his original demands

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On that

  • Trump had to accept that Mexico and Canada would not agree to all of his original demands

You'd say the same of China, but so far they've held firm.

Added - G20 start 28th.