I’m trying to put myself in the place of all the mobile money that is constantly washing through the global markets. The downside risk to the USD is too large so I’m not comfortable sitting overly long. The Japanese economy continues to struggle with deflationary pressures but the currency is relatively stable; on the downside, the JPY is at quite high levels. The AUD is riding high on a commodity boom but it is a small currency at relatively high historical levels and if I’m trying to get out in times of trouble then the exit door becomes very narrow; holding a small long position makes sense to me, but only small. That leaves the European currencies. The EUR is in the middle of a political and financial storm so it is too risky for me to hold. The CHF is being aggressively sold by the SNB as they try and deter speculative buyers of their currency. Which leaves the GBP. The economy is also performing very poorly but the pound has been consistently sold over the last 18 months against virtually every other major currency. Perhaps it’s fallen far enough. And the pound is still regarded as a major international currency so I feel moderately comfortable holding it. At least for the moment.